In the loop 12 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.49/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.45/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.6%), ARS (+0.3%) and PEN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the INR (-0.9%), PHP (-0.8%) and CLP (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

Iran war: President Trump yesterday said that the ceasefire between the US and Iran was on “massive life support” after rejecting Tehran's latest peace proposal.
Iran's response to the US proposal included demands for the lifting of Washington's naval blockade and sanctions relief.
Iran was also seeking to retain control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump nevertheless said that a diplomatic resolution remained “very possible”.
However, he reiterated claims that Iranian leaders “intend to give us the nuclear dust” and also expressed support for a temporary gasoline tax holiday.

UK retail sales rose in April, with the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reporting a 3.4% y/y decline in like-for-like sales, from a 3.1% y/y increase in March.
Total sales growth declined by 3.0% y/y in April, from a 3.6% y/y increase in March.
The BRC noted that spending across all categories was down in April, except for sales of jewellery and watches and health and beauty.
When March and April figures were combined, to account for Easter, sales were up on a y/y basis.

US lawmakers have proposed suspending federal taxes on petrol and diesel after President Trump endorsed this measure amid surging fuel prices linked to the Iran war.
The federal levy currently adds 18.4 cents per gallon to petrol prices and 24.4 cents per gallon to diesel prices.
President Trump said that “we're going to take off the gas tax for a period of time, and when gas goes down, we'll let it phase back in”.
Consideration of a temporary “gas tax holiday” comes as Americans grapple with higher fuel prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

US existing home sales increased in April, rising by 0.2% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, after having declined by 2.9% m/m in March (4.01 million).
The median existing home price edged up 0.9% y/y, to $417,700 in April.
The housing market remains challenged by elevated mortgage rates and asking prices.
Elevated energy costs on the back of the Iran war are also beginning to strain household budgets.
Inventory rose to 1.47 million units.

The US April CPI report is the key data release today.
Headline inflation is expected to have increased to 3.7% y/y in April, from 3.3% y/y in March.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.6% in April, following a 0.9% increase in March.
Core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in April, from 0.2% m/m in March.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for April, also due out today, likely increased to 96.1 in April, from 95.8 in March.

Locally, manufacturing production for March is due out today; production likely increased by 0.3% y/y in March, following a 2.8% y/y decline in February.
Manufacturing output is likely to have increased by 0.7% m/m in March, after declining by 2.2% m/m in February.
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q1:26 is also scheduled for release today; the unemployment rate fell to 31.4% in Q4:25.

President Cyril Ramaphosa said yesterday that he would not be resigning over the Phala Phala scandal which broke in 2022.
He added that, while there have been calls for his resignation, nothing in the Constitutional Court judgement compels him to resign.

Brent crude oil is currently at $104.82/bbl; ($104.21/bbl*).
Gold is at $4716/oz ($4736/oz*).
SA CDS 146bps**, Brazil 117bps* and Turkey 226bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.42%*, German bund at 3.04%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.84%*, SA's R2035 at 8.67%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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