In the loop 21 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.46/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.50/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MXN (+0.6%), KRW (+0.6%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.7%), RON (-0.3%) and IDR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: the US reportedly carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iranian military, coastal surveillance, air-defence and communications targets around southern Iran and strategic Gulf locations.
Iran responded with new missile and drone attacks across the region.
Mediation efforts are ongoing.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham yesterday pledged a “new economic model” for the UK, seeking to reassure Britons that his leadership would mark the end of a prolonged period of political instability.
In his first public remarks, Burnham promised immediate, fully costed measures to reduce the cost of living.
He described them as the first step in a 10-year plan to reshape government, hand more power to local authorities, and place essential public services under stronger public control.
Burnham acknowledged widespread public frustration.
Burnham added that he intends to make this a “circuit-breaker moment” for Britain, delivering the country's biggest political and economic reforms in more than 40 years.

The S&P Global UK consumer sentiment index rose to 43.4 (a four-month high) in July, up from 42.2 in June.
Consumer confidence improved during the month, although sentiment remains subdued.
S&P Global attributed the improvement to calmer geopolitical conditions and lower energy prices following the then US-Iran ceasefire.
Confidence strengthened across all major components of the survey, with the household finances, spending, labour market, debt and savings indices all recording gains.

The UK jobs data, due out today, will likely show that annual regular pay growth in the private sector held unchanged, at 2.9%, in the three months to May.
The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.9%, in May.
Germany's July ZEW survey expectations are due out tomorrow and is expected at 15.3 in July, from 10.5 in June.
The Eurozone ZEW survey expectations for July are also due out today.

The ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey, due out today, is expected to show a further decline in both the supply of and demand for credit since the onset of the conflict in the Middle East.
The anticipated weakness reflects tighter lending standards by banks and higher borrowing costs, which have dampened demand for new loans.
A further deterioration in lending conditions would indicate that financial conditions across region have tightened further and would strengthen the case for Governing Council members who argue against raising interest rates too aggressively.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.63/bbl; ($89.22/bbl*).
Gold is at $4057/oz ($4008/oz*).
SA CDS 129bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 237bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.59%*, German bund at 3.15%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.71%*, SA's R2035 at 8.54%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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