In the loop 08 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.59/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.56/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the INR (+0.9%), PHP (+0.2%) and THB (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-2.0%), CLP (-1.9%) and PEN (-1.8%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: negotiations to end the Iran war showed limited progress over the weekend, with diplomacy overshadowed by renewed military escalation and persistent disagreements on core terms.
US-Iran officials acknowledged that discussions had stalled.

Central bank watch: the ECB's policy meeting will be the main event of the week; the central bank is largely expected to raise borrowing costs by 25 bps, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%.
Investors will keep a close eye on comments made by ECB President Christine Lagarde after the meeting.
The Bank of Canada is likely to hold the overnight rate steady at 2.25% on Wednesday.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 37% on Thursday.

Japan's revised GDP data for Q1:26 came in at 1.8% q/q, down from 2.1% q/q previously, and 0.7% q/q in Q4:25.
Business investment was down in the quarter on the back of the Iran war.
China's trade data is due out tomorrow and likely remained robust in May, as strong demand for AI hardware outweighed softer demand elsewhere.
Exports and imports are expected to post solid gains in May.
China's CPI for May, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 1.3% y/y, from 1.2% y/y in April.
PPI is expected to come in at 3.8% y/y in May, from 2.8% y/y in April.

German industrial production for April is scheduled for release tomorrow; production is likely to have improved in April, after having fallen in March.
The UK's monthly GDP release for April is due on Friday.
Monthly GDP is likely to have stagnated in April as the increase in energy prices squeezes real incomes.

The US May CPI report will be a key focus on Wednesday.
Headline inflation is expected to have increased to 4.2% y/y in May, from 3.8% y/y in April.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5% in May, following a 0.6% increase in April.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for May, scheduled for release tomorrow, likely increased to 96.0 in May, from 95.9 in April.
Existing home sales for May, due tomorrow, are expected to have increased by 1.0% m/m, following a 0.2% increase in April.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June likely increased to 46, from 44.8 in May.

Locally, GDP growth for Q1:26 is in the spotlight tomorrow and is expected to have increased by 0.3% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.4% q/q (sa) in Q4:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.7% in Q1:26, after having increased 0.9% y/y in Q4:25.
The current account for Q1:26 is scheduled for release on Thursday; the surplus is expected to have widened to 1.0% of GDP in Q1:26, from a surplus of 0.6% of GDP in Q4:25.
Mining production for April is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have increased by 3.5% y/y in April, up from 2.5% y/y in March.
Manufacturing production for April is also due out on Thursday; production is likely to have increased by 1.5% y/y in April, after having increased by 0.9% y/y in March.

Fitch on Friday upgraded SA's sovereign credit rating, from BB- to BB; the outlook remains stable.

Brent crude oil is currently at $97.05/bbl; ($93.09/bbl*).
Gold is at $4280/oz ($4328/oz*).
SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 241bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.53%*, German bund at 3.03%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.88%*, SA's R2035 at 8.70%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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