In the loop 30 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.86/$, after closing unchanged yesterday (R17.89/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.6%), RUB (+0.5%) and BRL (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.1%), PLN (-0.9%) and CZK (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC meeting is in the spotlight today.
The FOMC is largely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged despite pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
Investors will keep an eye on the press conference following the interest rate decision announcement.
The Bank of Canada is expected to hold the overnight rate steady, at 2.75%.
The State Bank of Pakistan is likely to cut rates by 50 basis points, to 10.50%.

China and the United States yesterday have agreed to extend their tariff truce.
Both sides will be continuing their close communication.
President Trump has noted that India may face a tariff of 20%-25% — but the final rate is undecided.

The IMF yesterday upwardly revised its global growth forecast for this year and next.
The upward revision for this year was explained by improved financial conditions due to a weaker USD and lower average effective US tariff rates than announced in April.
However, the IMF noted that, while the trade shock could turn out to be less severe than initially feared, it is still sizable.
The IMF added that “evidence is mounting that it is hurting the global economy”.

The Eurozone GDP data, due out today, may show an economy failing to grow in the second quarter.
GDP is likely to have flatlined in Q2:25, after having increased by 0.6% q/q in Q1:25.
Most of the rebound is expected on the back of a steep decline in goods imports following the stockpiling of goods ahead of tariffs.
Consumer confidence (final estimate for July) is likely to come in at -14.7, from -15.3 in June.
Economic confidence is expected to have improved to 94.5 in July, from 94.0 in June.
The ECB’s wage tracker is also scheduled for release today.

The US second quarter GDP (advance print) likely rebounded following a contraction in the first quarter.
GDP is expected to come in at 2.4% q/q in Q2:25, following a contraction of 0.5% q/q in Q1:25.
The US private sector ADP employment report for July is expected to show an increase in private payrolls of 75k, after having fallen by 33k in June.
The data comes ahead of the closely watched non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for July, due out on Friday.
The NFP for July likely increased, by 107k, down from an increase of 147k in June.
The unemployment rate is likely to have to have increased to 4.2% in July, from 4.1% in June.

Locally, the monthly Budget balance data for June is due out today; the budget deficit came in at R10.1bn in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $72.63/bbl; ($72.51/bbl*).
Gold is at $3328/oz ($3326/oz*).
SA CDS 183bps*, Brazil 151bps* and Turkey 276bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.32%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.88%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.79%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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