In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.80/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.78/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TWD (+0.5%), KRW (+0.4%) and COP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-2.3%), CLP (-1.1%) and MXN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• Iran war: markets remain concerned that the recent resumption of hostilities and attacks on shipping could further erode trust and complicate efforts to reach a durable ceasefire.
• As such, the outlook for a comprehensive peace agreement remains uncertain, with the combination of ongoing military action, threats to maritime trade, and fragile negotiations continuing to pose risks to global energy markets and broader geopolitical stability.

• The UK's GfK Consumer Confidence Index improved sharply in July, to -17 (the highest reading since January), from-23 in June.
• The survey suggested that consumers became more optimistic amid a combination of factors.
• These factors included political change, favourable weather, easing Middle East tensions, and the feel-good boost from the FIFA World Cup.
• Confidence in the UK's economic situation over the past 12 months jumped by 10 points, to -39 in July.
• Expectations for the economy over the next year rose eight points, to -28, the strongest levels since late 2024.
• Households have also become more willing to make major purchases, with the major purchase index increasing eight points, to -12.

• The UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey for July is on the cards today.
• Policymakers at the BOE will watch the survey closely for signals on inflation persistence risks. 
• The report is expected to provide insight into how elevated energy prices is influencing business inflation expectations.
• Retail sales for June are expected to have increased by 2.4% y/y in June, down from 3.2% y/y in May.
• The UK composite PMI for July is expected to have increased to 49.8, from 49.3 in June.

• Eurozone consumer confidence for July improved to -15.9, from -17.6 in June.
• The increase suggests that households became somewhat less pessimistic about their financial situation and the broader economic outlook, extending the gradual recovery seen since confidence bottomed out in April.

• The Eurozone July composite PMI is due today and is likely to have increased to 50.2, from 50.0 in June.
• The ECB's 1-year inflation expectations, also due out today, is likely to have moderated to 3.2% in June, from 3.5% in May.
• The 3-year inflation expectations are also expected to have remained unchanged, at 2.9%, in June.

• The US composite PMI for July, due for release today, is expected to have increased to 52.2, from 51.9 in June.
• Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have increased in July.
• US new home sales for June are expected to have increased by 4.8% m/m, following a 7.3% m/m decline in May.
• Homebuilders reported that prospective buyer traffic was largely steady in July, but sales remained sluggish.

• Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 65.8% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and down by 6.7% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $100.30/bbl; ($100.69/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4024/oz ($4049/oz*).
• SA CDS 132bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.69%*, German bund at 3.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.98%*, SA's R2035 at 8.81%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

• 08h00: UK retail sales (June)
• 10h00: Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (July), ECB 1yr and 3yr inflation expectations (June)
• 10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (July), DMP 3m and 1 yr inflation expectations (July)
• 15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (July)
• 16h00: US new home sales (June)

Read PDF