Guidance miss, FY26 breakeven target shifts from PBT to adjusted EBITDA
Tracy Kivunyu
#themes: cost consolidation below expectations, customer acceleration, currency strength, Egypt recovery
Jumia 4Q25 results: 4Q25 results benefitted from strong customer, order and GMV acceleration benefitting from Black Friday and festive season monetisation along with currency stability particularly in the NGN. Egypt also returned to GMV growth in 4Q25. Jumia also showcased material cost consolidation in the quarter with a 45% y/y reduction in loss before tax to USD 9.7 in 4Q25. There was also a material improvement in cash burn and working capital management ahead of our expectations. However, the progress delivered still fell short of expectations, leading Jumia to miss its FY25 guidance on orders, GMV and loss before tax. Consequently, Jumia's FY25 loss before tax, which declined 38% y/y to USD 60.1m, was 8% higher than SBGS estimates and 9% higher than guidance.
Updated FY26 guidance: Jumia has changed its FY26 guidance target to breakeven in 4Q26 at adjusted EBITDA level (previously breakeven at PBT level) and has now guided for adjusted EBITDA loss of USD 25-30m for FY26 (previous guidance was loss before tax of USD 25-30m). Jumia retained its target to achieve profitability in FY27, while now also guiding for positive cashflows to be achieved in the year. The company has also given guidance of 27-32% y/y GMV growth (adjusted for perimeter effects) for both 1Q26 and FY26. Jumia also anticipates cash outflows related to seasonality, annual contract renewal payments and one-off costs related to exiting Algeria (2% of GMV). Currency tailwinds could however drive stronger GMV performance, and an improved commission structure could lead to better revenue performance.
Customer acquisition beats, orders behind SBGS estimates: Quarterly customers grew by 24% y/y to 3.0m in 4Q25, 4% ahead of our 2.9m estimate, and at 26% adjusted for the Tunisia and South Africa exit (perimeter effects). Physical goods orders grew 31% y/y to 7.5m in 4Q25, which was 7% behind SBGS estimates, with orders per customer increasing at 9% q/q to 2.5 (SBGS: 2.8). FY25 total order growth was 24% y/y to 22.6m, 2.4% below SBGS estimates and slightly behind Jumia's guidance of 25-27% physical order growth.
GMV accelerates but still lags estimates, higher AOV due to changed category mix: GMV grew 36% y/y to USD 280m (37% y/y adjusted for perimeter effects) in 4Q25 and was 5% behind SBGS estimates. Performance was driven by order growth and a 4.5% y/y increase in average order value (AOV) of USD 37 which benefitted from a larger share of orders from high value categories such as appliances. GMV grew by 14% y/y to USD 819m in FY25 (16% y/y adjusted for perimeter effects), which was 1.6% behind SBGS estimates and narrowly missed Jumia's FY25 guidance of 15-17% y/y GMV growth.
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