In the loop 26 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.84/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.83/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+1.1%), KRW (+1.0%) and ZAR (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.3%), RUB (-0.7%) and THB (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Korea today held its policy rate steady, at 2.5%.

ECB Governing council member Boris Vujcic noted that the ECB must remain vigilant despite having regained control over inflation.
While price growth has returned to the ECB's medium-term target, he cautioned that the broader economic and geopolitical backdrop leaves little room for complacency.
Vujcic stressed the importance of closely monitoring evolving risks and maintaining a data-dependent approach, balancing near-term challenges with longer-term objectives.
He also highlighted potential vulnerabilities, including elevated US asset valuations driven in part by strong investor interest in AI-related stocks.

The Eurozone consumer and economic confidence data for February are scheduled for release today.
Consumer confidence for February (final estimate) is likely to have remained unchanged, at -12.2 (from the previous estimate), from 12.4 in January.
Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 99.8 in February, from 99.4 in January.

The IMF described the US economy as generally “buoyant” and performing well, with solid growth and labour market conditions.
It projected that economic growth would accelerate to around 2.4% in 2026, with unemployment expected to ease towards roughly 4%.
Inflation is expected to gradually return to the Fed's 2% target by 2027.
However, the Fund flagged several risks and vulnerabilities.
It raised concerns about uncertainty around trade policies and tariffs, noting these could act as a drag on economic activity and lift goods inflation.
It also emphasised that protectionist measures might dampen economic performance.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin yesterday remarked that monetary policy should not be used to offset the disruptions artificial intelligence may bring to businesses and the labour market.
He noted that the Fed's primary tool, the benchmark Fed funds rate, is a “blunt instrument” and not a solution to every economic challenge.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid reiterated his concerns about inflation, emphasising that, while the labour market remains in a “pretty good place,” structural shifts are underway.
He noted that artificial intelligence could help offset the impact of fewer new entrants into the workforce as the US population ages.
Schmid was one of three dissenters against the Fed's 25 bps rate cut in December.
He will not hold a vote on monetary policy this year.

Locally, the January PPI is on the cards today and is expected to come in at 2.4% y/y, after having increased by 2.9% y/y in December.
On a m/m basis, PPI is expected to have flatlined in January, following a 0.2% increase in December.

Brent crude oil is currently at $71.07/bbl; ($70.85/bbl*).
Gold is at $5199/oz ($5164/oz*).
SA CDS 137bbps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 223bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.05%*, German bund at 2.70%*, SA 10-year generic at 7.94%*, SA's R2035 at 7.80%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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