FX Monthly Chart Book
- The rand has strengthened in recent days following weakness mid-month. It did, however, lose 0.6% against the dollar in August and was only marginally weaker by 0.1% against the euro. The rand gained 0.4% against the pound in August. The rand traded in a range of R14.22/$ to R15.39/$ in August. The rand has been the best performer amongst its emerging market peers since 20 August.
- The strength in the currency was supported by a bounce in commodity prices and data revisions showing that SA’s debt is less burdensome than previously thought. Stats SA’s rebasing and benchmarking has lifted estimated GDP by around 11%, with a favourable impact on ratios such as government debt-to-GDP and the fiscal-deficit-to-GDP.
- We see a modest depreciation in the currency this year; we see the rand ending the year at R14,70/$ and averaging R14,63/$.