In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.85/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.74/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.1%), COP (+0.9%) and HUF (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.1%), ZAR (-0.4%) and KRW (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Central bank watch: the Bank of Russia looks set to keep interest rates on hold today.

• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey yesterday commented that the UK economy is not close to recession currently, even as US tariffs have dampened business investment and consumer confidence.
• He nonetheless added that the central bank is “quite focused on the growth shock” from the trade war.
• BOE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli commented that the central bank must assume that the future for the global economy is one of persistent shocks.
• Policymakers would then have to make greater use of scenarios for interest rate decisions.

• The UK GfK consumer confidence index deteriorated to -23 in April, from -19 in March.
• UK retail sales are likely to have declined by 0.5% m/m, after having increased by 1.0% m/m in February.

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that, if aggressive tariff levels are reinstated by the Trump administration, firms may begin laying off more workers.
• Waller added that he would support further interest rate cuts if there were a significant increase in unemployment.
• He noted that the impact of tariffs would not likely have a significant impact on the economy before July.
• Waller reiterated his view that the inflationary impact of the tariffs would likely be temporary.

• US President Trump yesterday commented that the US and China have been engaging despite comments from Beijing denying that negotiations are underway.
• China has dismissed speculation that progress has been made in bilateral communications.

• The US University of Michigan sentiment index for April (final estimate) is due out today.
• The sentiment index is likely to have deteriorated to 50.8 in April, from 57.0 in March.

• Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
• Eskom has suspended loadshedding.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 10.2% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 26.5% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $67.03/bbl; ($66.55/bbl*).
• Gold is at $3319/oz ($3295/oz*).
• SA CDS 241bps*, Brazil 187bps* and Turkey 333bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.31%*, German bund at 2.44%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.69%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.66%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 08h00: UK retail sales (March)
• 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (April – final)

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