In the loop 12 June 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger, at R16.30/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.53/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.8%), COP (+1.6%) and CLP (+1.3%) were the biggest gainers; the PLN (-0.7%), KRW (-0.6%) and INR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: US President Donald Trump has signalled that the final points of a deal with Iran have been approved by “all parties”.
He cancelled new planned strikes on Iran and called the deal “a great settlement of the war”, saying that documents would be finalised in the next few days.
After repeated hints from Trump about parties being close to a deal, these comments were the most explicit.
It may signal that Washington and Tehran could be close to a preliminary deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
There has been no official response from Iran.

Today sees the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment and inflation expectations survey for June.
The consumer sentiment fell for a third straight month in May, with the index reaching a record low (since the survey began in 1952) of 44.8 – just below the previous trough reached in June 2022.
Cost-of-living concerns were top of mind, with gas prices climbing and worries about inflation broadening.
Sentiment may have increased slightly in June on the back of current conditions improving somewhat.
One-year ahead inflation expectations were 4.8% in May; longer-term inflation expectations were 3.9%.

The UK RICS house price balance disappointed by not improving in May.
The house price indicator came in at -35%, in line with the downwardly adjusted reading for April.
A slew of UK data for April, including monthly GDP, is due this morning.
Real GDP is expected to have contracted by 0.1% m/m in April, after increasing by 0.3% m/m in March.
This would bring the three-month rolling reading to a rise of 0.7% in real GDP, after eight months of growth up to March.
Industrial production volumes are expected to show a rise of 0.1% m/m in April; volumes dipped 0.2% m/m in March.
Manufacturing production likely contracted by 0.2% m/m in April, after rising by 1.2% m/m in March; this would see factory production up 0.5% y/y in April.
In annual terms, industrial production was likely 0.1% lower in April, after flatlining in March.
The UK trade deficit is expected to have narrowed in April.

Japan's industrial production came in lower than expected in April, after contracting by 0.4% m/m in March.
Industrial production growth (final estimate) recorded 0.5% m/m in April, down from 0.8% m/m reported previously.
In annual terms, industrial production was 2.0% higher in April (downwardly revised from 2.3%).
Capacity utilisation slipped 0.8% m/m in April, after also declining (by 1.2% m/m) in March.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.53/bbl; ($90.38/bbl*).
Gold is at $4183/oz ($4080/oz*).
SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 240bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.46%*, German bund at 3.03%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.77%*, SA's R2035 at 8.58%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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