In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.75/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.80/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (+1.4%), ZAR (+1.2%) and BRL (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the RON (-0.4%), BGN (-0.3%) and PLN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• China’s PMI data for April due out tomorrow will give a read on the strength of the Chinese economy heading into Q2:24.
• Japan’s industrial output for March is likely to bounce back from the dip in February.
• Japan’s unemployment rate for March is likely to have slipped, to 2.5%, from 2.6% in February. 

• The Eurozone CPI for April is due for release on Tuesday and is expected to have come in at 2.4% y/y, matching March’s increase.
• Core inflation is likely to have moderated to 2.6% y/y in April, from 2.9% y/y in March. 
• CPI is likely to drop below 2% in the summer; the ECB is largely expected to start cutting interest rates at the June MPC meeting. 
• Eurozone GDP for Q1:24 is also on the cards on Tuesday; the Eurozone economy likely expanded 0.1% q/q in Q1:24, after contracting 0.1% q/q in both Q4:24 and Q3:23.
• The UK Nationwide house prices for April, due out on Wednesday, are likely to have increased by 1.2% y/y, following a 1.6% y/y increase in March.

• The US Fed’s FOMC meeting is in the spotlight this week (Wednesday); the Fed is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged this week.
• Fed policymakers may now be less confident that inflation is on a path to the central bank’s 2% target following the latest CPI and core PCE data.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to indicate that fewer interest rate cuts are likely this year.
• The US consumer confidence index for April is due out on Tuesday and likely slipped.
• The advance goods trade balance data for March, scheduled for Thursday, could see the trade deficit widening. 
• The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for March, due out on Wednesday, are likely to have fallen further.
• The March JOLTS print should show openings down modestly to 8.68 million.  
• Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for April, due out on Friday, is also expected to have slowed, to 250k, following an increase of 303k in March.
• The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged at 3.8% in April. 
• The US ISM services index for April is due out on Friday; the index likely increased to 52.0 in April, from 51.4 in March.

• Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for March are due out on Tuesday.
• PSCE is likely to come in at 3.43% y/y in March, from 3.32% y/y in February.
• M3 money supply is likely to come in at 5.7% y/y in March, matching February’s increase.
• The March trade surplus is also due on Tuesday; a trade surplus of R16.5bn is expected, from R14.0bn in February.
• The monthly Budget balance data for March is scheduled for release on Tuesday. 
• The BER manufacturing PMI for April is due for release on Thursday; the index is likely to have increased to 50.5, from 49.2 in March. 
• The April Naamsa vehicle sales are also due out on Thursday; vehicle sales are likely to have declined by 7.5% y/y in April, after having declined by 11.7% y/y in March. 
• Electricity production and consumption for March are scheduled for release on Thursday.

• Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 15.1% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 13.0% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $88.72/bbl; ($89.50/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2331/oz ($2337/oz*).
• SA CDS 243bps*, Brazil 152bps* and Turkey 302bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.66%*, German bund at 2.57%*, SA 10-year generic at 12.08%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.74%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

• 11h00: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence (April)

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