In the loop 29 July 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker, at R16.72/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.67/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday: the KRW (+1.0%), CLP (+0.9%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.8%), IDR (-0.3%) and TWD (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: a pause in hostilities since Friday was ended by an “attempted surprise” ballistic missile strike by Iran on US forces, according to the US Central Command.
All missiles were intercepted, but this end to a days-long break in direct attacks could spur further escalating military action.
The US and Saudi Arabian forces struck “Iran-aligned terrorists” in eastern Iraq on Tuesday, risking a wider war in the region.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Donald Trump in Washington earlier on Tuesday to try to convince him to expand military operations against Iran.
Before the visit, Trump acknowledged “a little difference” in his and Israel's military objectives.
Trump deemed the meeting “very good”; Netanyahu stressed their “full partnership and mutual support” and their “common goal” to end Iran's nuclear programme.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC is likely to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged today.
Fed policymakers have signalled concern over high inflation, and argued that the Fed would have to raise rates at some point.
Tomorrow sees the release of the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, for June.
Core PCE is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m, to 3.3% y/y in June, after having increased by 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y in May.
Earlier, CPI data for June came in lower than expected.

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that the AI boom is blurring the economic signals that inform central banks' monetary policy.
AI's effect could “shape the global outlook in real time” and may support growth despite geopolitical shocks and trade tensions, according to the BIS.
They estimate the effects to be “large and observable” and noted that it could add to price pressures in the near term.
If AI can improve productivity, however, it could be a disinflationary force over time.
“The relative strength and timing of these forces remain uncertain”, the BIS stressed.
Higher uncertainty increases the danger of policy “miscalibration”.

Locally, the SARB releases private sector credit extension and M3 money supply figures for June this morning.
Private sector credit extension (PSCE) growth remained quite robust in May despite easing to 8.6% y/y, from 9.2% y/y in April.
Corporate credit growth continued to outpace household credit growth.
PSCE growth likely slowed slightly further, to around 8.3% y/y, in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $87.26/bbl; ($84.09/bbl*).
Gold is at $4032/oz ($4038/oz*).
SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 241bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.61%*, German bund at 3.10%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.67%*, SA's R2035 at 8.48%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF