In the loop 04 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.50/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.53/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.7%), PHP (+0.5%) and KRW (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-2.4%), RUB (-1.2%) and TWD (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: US President Trump has said talks with Iran were under way and that he had halted a planned military escalation to allow for negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programme.
Iran, however, publicly denied holding direct talks with Washington, insisting that its discussions were taking place through Oman and were centred on restoring safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

New York Fed President John Williams yesterday said that he expects inflation to continue easing but stressed that the Fed remains prepared to raise interest rates if necessary to return inflation to its target.
He said that inflation should moderate if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy remains resilient.
This would allow recent inflationary pressures to fade and underlying disinflationary trends to re-emerge.
Williams expects inflation to decline during the second half of this year and ease further next year.
He added that he is closely monitoring core inflation to assess whether it is on a sustained path back to the Fed's 2% target by 2028.

The US trade balance, due out today, is likely to have compressed in June, to -$73.0bn, from -$77.6bn in May.
Exports likely declined less than imports, with all major categories of goods imports set to post declines.
The JOLTS job openings data for June, also scheduled for today, likely slipped to 7.454 million in June, from 7.594 million in May.
The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls for July, which are scheduled for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 80k in July, after having increased by 57k in June.

Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday commented in his weekly newsletter that SA's Just Energy Transition (JET) is gaining momentum and is creating opportunities for investment, economic growth and job creation while supporting the country's goal of securing reliable and affordable electricity.
He highlighted the launch of the first phase of the 155MW Ummbila Emoyeni wind farm in Mpumalanga, developed by Seriti Green, as a symbol of the country's changing energy landscape.
The project will ultimately form part of a 900MW hybrid energy cluster combining wind, solar and battery storage.
Ramaphosa noted that, while coal remains the dominant source of electricity, renewable energy is expanding rapidly.
Renewable energy's share of SA's electricity generation has increased from 2% in 2016, to 9% in 2024, with nearly 16GW installed and a further 32GW of projects expected by 2030.

Operation Vulindlela's Q1:26 progress report (released on Friday) showed continued progress with structural reforms to boost growth and improve service delivery.
Advances were made in electricity market reform and Eskom's restructuring, while freight logistics reforms expanded private sector participation in rail and ports.
The report also highlighted progress in water reform through the National Water Action Plan, alongside improvements in visa reform, local government, digital public infrastructure, and efforts to reduce spatial inequality.

Brent crude oil is currently at $85.09/bbl; ($83.77/bbl*).
Gold is at $4067/oz ($4054/oz*).
SA CDS 125bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 233bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.67%*, German bund at 3.15%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.65%*, SA's R2035 at 8.46%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

14h30: US trade balance (June)
16h00: US factory orders (June), durable goods orders (June), JOLTS job openings (June)

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