In the loop 23 June 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker, at R16.46/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.40/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday: the COP (+0.8%), ZAR (+0.3%) and BRL (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.4%), PLN (-0.8%) and PHP (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: negotiations between the US and Iran will continue after high-level talks concluded yesterday.
Conflicting instructions from Iran, the US and western insurers have left confusion over safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's lead negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that “Iran will administer the Strait of Hormuz” through a “telephone hotline” for ships crossing the waterway.
Ships may face penalties and may be forced to turn back if they do not have permission from Tehran before passing through.
The 60-day lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports allows oil to be imported into the US for the first time since 1979.
This temporary agreement does not include sales to Cuba, North Korea or Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that he is concerned that not all factors driving up inflation currently are temporary.
“We've been dealing with an inflation problem that's well above the target and has been going the wrong way”, Goolsbee said.
He noted that the Fed now has to assess whether temporary shocks, like the war-induced energy-price surge, are the only factors pushing up inflation.
He is concerned about the “disturbing” rise in services prices, which can often be more persistent, according to Goolsbee.
Goolsbee said that he is sympathetic to Warsh's view that the Fed shouldn't be giving too much guidance on the likely future interest rate trajectory.

Today sees the release of some key US activity indicators for June.
The US S&P Global composite PMI for June is expected to show an acceleration in activity, after slowing to 51.2 in May.
Services-sector activity likely recovered somewhat in June, after coming in just above the neutral threshold of 50 (levels above this signal expansion) in May.
The manufacturing PMI improved to 55.1 in May and is expected to more broadly sideways in June.
The Richmond Fed manufacturing indicator for June is also due today.

Japan's S&P Global composite PMI improved to 52.5 in June, from 51.1 in May.
Both the manufacturing PMI and the services PMI increased in June.
The manufacturing PMI reached 54.9 in June, up from 54.5 in May.
The services PMI rose to 51.8 in June, after coming in at the neutral level of 50 in May.

The Eurozone S&P Global composite PMI for June likely remained in contraction (below 50).
Stalling services activity dragged the composite PMI down in May, while manufacturing activity expanded.
The UK S&P Global composite PMI is expected to have recovered in June, with the services PMI seen improving to 50.1 in June, from 49.3 in May.
The manufacturing PMI will likely signal continued expansion in UK factory activity in June.

Locally, the SARB releases business cycle indicators for April this morning.
The focus will be on the leading indicator; it increased to 123.0 in March, from 120.1 in February.
The Q2:26 BER consumer confidence index is also due for release today.
The index improved to -7 in Q1:26, from -9.3 in Q4:25.
War-related cost-of-living pressures are likely to have weighed on consumer confidence in Q2:26.

Brent crude oil is currently at $77.45/bbl; ($77.90/bbl*).
Gold is at $4120/oz ($4190/oz*).
SA CDS 124bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.51%*, German bund at 2.95%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.46%*, SA's R2035 at 8.27%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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