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Standard Bank Group
South Africa 09 April 2024

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • This monthly report tracks power utility Eskom’s ability to supply power to the grid, the demand for electricity, and the consumption of electricity in order to gauge the likely impact on economic activity. It reviews Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) as well as how unplanned outages are affecting power supply in SA.
  • The EAF was at 52.6% in Q1:24, which should support an ongoing recovery in economic activity. Still, this remains below the average of around 59% in 2022, which was already down from 62% in 2021 and 65% in 2020. It also remains well below the utility’s near-term target of 65% (and longer-term target of 75%). SA’s Electricity Minister noted last month that all indications are that Eskom will achieve the 65% EAF target by the end of the current financial year and is on target to achieve 75% by the end of March next year.
  • The EAF improved steadily over the course of 2023, from below 50% at the beginning of that year to a high of just over 60%. This can be attributed partly to fewer unplanned and planned outages. The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was at 30.46% in Q1:24, compared to an average of 30.35% in Q4:23. The Q1:24 average is down from the average of 33% in 2023 and a peak of 38.6% in Q2:23. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) is around 12.9%, down from a peak of close to 18% at the beginning of Q2:23.
  • The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages in Q1:24 came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in the imports of lithium-ion batteries and solar panels last year, which supports our view that private-sector electricity storage and self-generation capacity is growing rapidly. The return to service of several generating units have also aided in reducing the level of loadshedding.
  • SA Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa noted that Eskom would be reducing planned maintenance from this month from 8,000MW to about 4,000MW by May (i.e. returning 4,000MW to the grid). This is typical of a reduction in planned maintenance during winter. The minister also added that Medupi Unit 4 would be returning to commercial operation in August this year, followed by a Koeberg Unit in September.
  • SA has experienced a total of 1,656 hours of loadshedding thus far in 2024. This translates into 69 full days of loadshedding this year. There were 289 days of loadshedding in 2023.
  • SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,526 GWh thus far in 2024. It was a cumulative 5,700 GWh in the comparable period in 2023. However, several Eskom units have already returned to commercial operation and will continue to help alleviate loadshedding pressure this year. As such, loadshedding has been reduced significantly over the past few weeks and has been suspended for 14 consecutive days. We expect economic growth at 1.2% in 2024, supported by the return to commercial operation of several Eskom generating units and increased self-generation. However, risks to the growth outlook remain to the downside, should flare-ups occur.

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