In the loop 19 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.52/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.44/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the INR (+0.2%), IDR (+0.2%) and COP (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.9%), ZAR (-1.7%) and PLN (-1.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: an initial 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed this week and in effect by 18 June, committed both sides to halt hostilities across all fronts.
It also triggered a 60-day negotiating period to resolve outstanding issues, particularly Iran's nuclear programme and sanctions relief.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Russia is largely expected to cut its key rate by 50 bps, to 14.0%, today.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane yesterday noted that inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are likely to persist despite the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran and the subsequent decline in oil prices.
He argued that, while energy costs have eased from their highs during the war, they remain above pre-conflict levels.
This implies that the earlier surge in fuel prices is still working its way through supply chains and the broader economy.
Lane warned that these “pipeline” effects could continue to push up the prices of goods and services in the months ahead, keeping inflation above the ECB's 2% target.
He also noted that the economy has shown greater resilience than expected, suggesting it may be able to withstand somewhat higher interest rates if needed.
Lane reiterated that the ECB would remain proactive and data-dependent in its fight against inflation.

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey remarked that, while inflation remains above target, the MPC still expects underlying price pressures to ease over time.
He acknowledged that the recent surge in energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East has complicated the inflation outlook.
This could keep headline inflation elevated in the near term.
However, Bailey stressed that policymakers must distinguish between temporary energy-driven price increases and more persistent domestic inflation pressures.
He noted that wage growth and services inflation are showing signs of moderation; he cautioned though that the bank cannot be complacent given the risk of second-round effects.

The UK's GfK consumer confidence index remained unchanged at -23 in June.
Households reported a weaker assessment of their financial situation.
The views on the broader economic outlook over the previous 12 months also worsened, indicating ongoing pressure from cost-of-living challenges and uncertainty.
The expectations for the economy over the next 12 months improved marginally, and expectations for personal finances were broadly unchanged, though still negative overall.
Intentions to make major purchases remained subdued at low levels, highlighting continued caution among consumers.

UK retail sales for May are scheduled for release today and are expected to have increased by 0.5% m/m, after having decreased by 1.3% m/m in April.
On a y/y basis, sales are likely to have increased by 1.8% in May, after having stalled in April.

The US leading indicator increased by 0.1% m/m in May, marking a second consecutive monthly gain after a 0.2% m/m rise in April.
The improvement suggests that the US economy remains on a moderate growth path despite headwinds from higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Brent crude oil is currently at $79.74/bbl; ($79.85/bbl*).
Gold is at $4131/oz ($4209/oz*).
SA CDS 124bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.45%*, German bund at 2.92%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.44%*, SA's R2035 at 8.26%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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