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In the loop 27 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is steady this morning, at R16.64/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.63/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MXN (+0.5%), CLP (+0.5%) and COP (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-8.1%), ARS (-0.7%) and PHP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey travelled to Tehran for discussions, with participants agreeing to continue negotiations.
  • However, geopolitical risks remain elevated. 
 
  • China's industrial profits growth accelerated sharply in September, rising by 14.4% y/y, from 4.2% in August. 
  • Cumulative profits increased by 15.5% y/y in the first nine months of the year, moderating slightly from 15.7% y/y in the January-August period. 
  • The improvement was largely driven by strong demand for high-tech and AI-related products, with profits in computer, communications and electronic equipment manufacturing surging by 103.8% y/y.
  • Nevertheless, the recovery was uneven as subdued domestic consumption, intense price competition and excess industrial capacity continued to weigh on profitability in consumer-oriented sectors. 
 
  • UK shop price inflation accelerated to 2.1% y/y in October, from 1.4% y/y in September, the highest since February 2024, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index. 
  • The increase was broad-based, with food inflation rising to 2.9% y/y, from 2.5% y/y in September, driven partly by higher prices for tinned and packaged foods.
  • Non-food inflation more than doubled to 1.7% y/y in October, from 0.8% y/y, reflecting rising energy, transport and input costs. 
  • The BRC warned that retailers are increasingly struggling to absorb mounting operating expenses, including higher employment costs, business rates and packaging taxes.
  • The data highlights persistent cost pressures across the retail sector and adds to concerns about the UK inflation outlook ahead of the government's Budget announcement tomorrow.
 
  • The EU yesterday said that it plans to hit China with more import curbs in early 2027 as part of a broader effort to protect European industry and reduce its large trade imbalance with China.
  • The European Commission is considering tariffs or import quotas on chemicals, furniture, and machinery from early 2027.
  • The plans follow the EU's recent agreement with Beijing to limit Chinese hybrid vehicle imports to 350,000 units a year, and come as the bloc's trade deficit with China reached €360bn last year.
  • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has argued further safeguards are needed to address trade imbalances and rising imports.
  • However, the EU is seeking to strengthen protection for domestic industries without provoking Chinese retaliation or a wider trade conflict.
  • The sectors and measures remain subject to discussions with member states and China.
 
  • The US S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index for August is due for release today and is expected to show an improvement in house price growth.
  • The FHFA house price index for August is also due out; the index is likely to have improved by 0.2% m/m in August, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in July.
  • New homes sales are expected to have fallen by 4.5% m/m (650k) in September, following a 6.4% m/m (684k) in August.
  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for October will also be published today.
  • The consumer sentiment index is likely to have slipped to 81.0 in October, from 81.9 in September.
  • Durable goods orders likely picked up in September.
 
  • Locally, the leading indicator for August is due out; the index slipped to 118.2 in July, from 119.3 in June.
 
  • Oil prices are down for a second consecutive day, retreating further from a six-month high, as renewed diplomatic efforts raised hopes of averting a broader escalation in the US-Iran war. 
  • Although crude flows have recovered to around prewar levels, shipping costs remain high.
  • Investors remain alert to potential market-moving developments, including the upcoming Israeli elections and US midterm elections.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 88.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 7.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $114.76/bbl; ($116.81/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4008/oz ($4016/oz*).
  • SA CDS 136bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 263bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.96%*, German bund at 3.36%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.80%*, SA's R2035 at 8.61%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 09h00: SA leading indicator (August)
  • 11h00: Eurozone M3 money supply (September), ECB Bank Lending Survey
  • 14h15: US ADP weekly employment change (10 October)
  • 14h30: US durable goods orders (September)
  • 15h00: US FHFA house price index (August), S&P Cotality house price index (August)
  • 16h00: US Conference Board consumer confidence index (October), new homes sales (September)
  • US building permits (September – final)
 

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