In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.49/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.43/$*).
• EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the PLN (-1.4%), HUF (-1.2%) and CLP (-1.2%) were the biggest losers; the TRY was up by 0.1%.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• The UK housing market will likely show signs of resilience in the near term.
• The UK Nationwide house price index is expected to have increased by 3.5% y/y in January, after having increased by 4.1% y/y in December.
• Nationwide previously noted that the outlook for the housing market is likely to remain bumpy in 2025.
• However, a third interest rate cut by the BOE may garner interest from buyers waiting for the right time.

• Eurozone inflation expectations for 1 year and 3 years ahead for January are scheduled for release later today.
• One-year-ahead inflation expectations are expected at 2.8% in January, unchanged from 2.8% in December.
• Three-year-ahead inflation expectations are likely to have increased to 2.5% in January, from 2.4% in December.

• US President Donald Trump announced yesterday that the proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico will become effective on 4 March. 
• President Trump also announced that China will be charged an additional 10% tariff on that date.
• He added that the 2 April reciprocal tariff date will remain in full force and effect.

• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack commented that US interest rates are not “meaningfully restrictive”.
• Hammack noted that rates should be held steady for some time as policymakers wait for evidence that inflation is moderating to the 2% target. 

• US personal income and spending for January are scheduled for release.
• Personal income is expected to have increased by 0.4% m/m in January, matching December’s increase.
• Personal spending is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in January, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in December.
• The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in January, following a 0.2% m/m increase in December. 

• Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for January are due out today.
• PSCE came in at 3.8% y/y in December, from 4.2% y/y in November.
• The monthly Budget balance data for January is also on the cards; the budget deficit came in at R21.4bn in December.
• The January trade balance is scheduled for release today; a trade surplus of R15.5bn was recorded in December. 

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 1.3% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 9.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $73.70/bbl; ($74.04/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2863/oz ($2883/oz*).
• SA CDS 194bps*, Brazil 173bps* and Turkey 254bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.25%*, German bund at 2.41%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.49%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.48%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data: 

• 08h00: SA M3 and PSCE (January)
• 09h00: UK Nationwide house price index (February)
• 11h00: Eurozone ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (January)
• 14h00: SA trade balance (January), monthly budget balance (January)
• 15h30: US advance goods trade balance (January), personal income and spending (January)

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