In the loop 18 May 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.73/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.69/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+0.3%) and RON (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.6%), CLP (-1.6%) and BRL (-1.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remained central over the weekend.
Iran is preparing a mechanism to regulate, and potentially charge, shipping while the US maintains a blockade.
Diplomatic progress remains limited, with US-Iran negotiations having stalled and both sides holding their positions.
The US intensified pressure and warned that time for a deal was running out, raising the risk of renewed strikes.

G7 meeting: G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet in Paris this week, with the focus on global imbalances, trade tensions, and FX policy.

Central bank watch: the minutes of the 28-29 April US FOMC meeting are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
The minutes are likely to show that support for removing the easing bias from the statement extended beyond the three dissenters.
The minutes will provide clarity on whether the easing cycle remains on an extended pause.
Bank Indonesia is likely to hold its key rate at 4.75% on Wednesday.
The Nigerian central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 26.5%, on Wednesday.

Japan's GDP data for Q1:26, due out tomorrow, will likely show faster expansion; GDP is expected at 1.7% q/q in Q1:26, from 1.3% q/q in Q4:25.
Headline inflation, due on Friday, is expected to have picked up in April.

The UK March labour market data will be released tomorrow, with y/y regular private sector pay growth in the three months to March expected to moderate to 3.1% y/y, from 3.2% y/y in the three months to February.
CPI for April, due on Wednesday, is expected to have moderated to 3.0% y/y in April, from a 3.3% y/y increase March.
The UK composite PMI for May, scheduled for Thursday, is expected to slip to 51.7, from 52.7 in April, reflecting concerns over the economic impact of the Iran war.
In the Eurozone, the May composite PMI is also due on Thursday; the PMI is likely to have eased to 48.7 in May, from 48.8 in April.
Germany's May Ifo business climate survey, due out on Friday, should provide further insight into the drag from higher energy prices on the near-term growth outlook.

US housing starts in April are scheduled for release on Thursday.
Housing starts likely slowed in April, after surging in March. Declining permit issuance suggests that builders have a more cautious outlook.
On Friday, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to have remained unchanged, at 48.2.

Locally, the April CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected at 3.9% y/y, from 3.1% y/y in March.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 1.0%, after having increased by 0.6% m/m in March.
Core CPI is projected at 3.5% y/y in April, from 3.2% y/y in March.
Also due Wednesday, March retail sales are expected to reflect growth of 2.5% y/y, up from a 1.6% y/y increase in February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $111.228/bbl; ($109.26/bbl*).
Gold is at $4544/oz ($4540/oz*).
SA CDS 150bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 241bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.59%*, German bund at 3.16%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.95%*, SA's R2035 at 8.79%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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