In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.30/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.32/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.5%), HUF (+0.9%) and BRL (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.5%), TWD (-0.5%) and PLN (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• Iran war: US officials stated that technical-level talks with Iran were continuing and reiterated Washington's preference for a negotiated settlement. 
• Regional mediators intensified efforts to de-escalate tensions and revive broader negotiations, particularly around the nuclear issue and security arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Reports indicated that mediators were working to salvage the peace process and prevent the latest military exchanges from completely derailing negotiations.

• BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill yesterday commented that interest rates may need to rise again over the coming year to keep inflation under control.
• He argued that the UK economy's sustainable growth rate is lower than previously thought, warning that demand has been running ahead of the economy's productive capacity. 
• Pill added that inflation outcomes over the past four years imply that the BOE has been overly optimistic about the economy's underlying growth potential. 

• US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh yesterday announced the leadership and objectives of five independent task forces on 9 July 2026 as part of a broad review of the Fed's monetary policy framework and operating procedures.
• The task forces will focus on communications, balance sheet policy, economic data, productivity and jobs, and inflation frameworks.
• The aim is to assess whether the Fed's policy tools, analytical methods and decision-making processes remain fit for purpose in a rapidly changing economy.

• NY Fed President John Williams yesterday commented that US inflation remains “far too high”, reinforcing the Fed's focus on restoring price stability.
• He noted that policymakers are evaluating a range of inflation scenarios amid uncertainty around energy prices, AI investment, and productivity trends.
• Williams stressed that monetary policy must remain data-dependent, with future decisions guided by incoming economic data and the impact on inflation and growth.
• While AI-related investment is currently adding to demand and inflation pressures, he expects wider adoption of the technology to boost productivity over time.
• Williams added that, although markets anticipate lower oil prices in the months ahead, the Fed remains focused on the extent to which energy costs feed through to broader inflation.

• US existing home sales decreased unexpectedly in June, by 2.4% m/m, to 4.09 million units.
• The decline came on the back of stubbornly high mortgage rates.
• On an y/y basis, sales were up by 2.8% in June.
• The median existing home price rose 1.8% y/y, to a record $440,600 in June, from $431,200 in May.
• Inventory of homes for sale decreased to 1.56 million in June, from 1.57 million in May.

• Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 25.8% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and down by 4.9% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $76.53/bbl; ($76.30/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4110/oz ($4123/oz*).
• SA CDS 124bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 227bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.54%*, German bund at 3.08%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.51%*, SA's R2035 at 8.35%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

• No economic data releases.

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