In the loop 08 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.60/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.59/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ZAR (+1.1%), CZK (+0.9%) and PLN (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.3%), ARS (-0.2%) and TRY (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the ECB’s interest rate decision will be closely watch on Thursday: the ECB is largely expected to hold its benchmark rate unchanged.
The Fed’s external communications blackout period begins ahead of the 16-17 September FOMC meeting.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 200 bps on Thursday.

China's credit and inflation data will be released this week.
Japan’s revised GDP for Q2:25 came in higher, at 0.5% q/q, from 0.1% q/q in Q1:25.
Consumer spending gained momentum in Q2:25, while capital investment remained positive.

Germany’s industrial output, due for release today, likely rose in July, though the broader outlook remains bleak as US tariffs take their toll.
UK monthly GDP data, due out on Friday, likely showed no growth in July, halting the expansion seen in the first half of the year.

The US NFIB small businesses sentiment, scheduled for release tomorrow, was likely little changed in August, after rising by 1.7 pts, to 100.3 in July.
The US CPI for August will be in focus on Thursday and is likely to come in at 2.9% y/y, from 2.7% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in August, after having increased by 0.2% in July.
The Fed will keep an eye on the data for larger tariff-related price increases that may occur.
PPI for August (out on Wednesday) is expected at 3.3% y/y, unchanged from July.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September, due on Friday, is likely to have slipped to 58.0, from 58.2 in August.

Locally, GDP growth for Q2:25 is in the spotlight tomorrow and is expected to have increased by 0.6% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.1% q/q (sa) in Q1:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 0.8% in Q2:25, matching Q1:25’s increase.
The current account for Q2:25 is scheduled for release on Thursday; the deficit is expected to have widened to 0.8% of GDP in Q2:25, from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP in Q1:25.
Manufacturing production for July is due out on Thursday; production is expected to have declined by 0.4% y/y in July, after having increased by 1.9% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have increased by 0.8% in July, after having flatlined in June.
Mining production for July is also out on Thursday; production is expected to have increased by 3.4% y/y in July, following a 2.4% y/y increase in June.
Mining production increased by 0.2% m/m in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.32/bbl; ($65.50/bbl*).
Gold is at $3584/oz ($3586/oz*).
SA CDS 169bps*, Brazil 135bps* and Turkey 265bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.09%*, German bund at 2.66%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.66%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.55%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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