In the loop 14 July 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R16.43/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.43/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday: the HUF (-1.1%), CLP (-0.9%) and ZAR (-0.7%) lost the most; the RUB (+0.3%), ARS (+0.3%) and KRW (+0.2%) gained the most.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: the US has declared the ceasefire “over”, with further waves of aerial attacks by both Iran and the US continuing.
According to the US Central Command, the strikes were intended to “continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz”.
Iran reportedly said that it would by no means “allow the US to interfere in the management” of the waterway.
The US military is planning to reimpose its naval blockade of vessels to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas later today.

The US CPI data for June will be a key focus today.
Headline inflation is expected to come in at 3.8% y/y in June, from 4.2% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have declined by 0.1% in June, following a 0.5% increase in May.
Core inflation is expected at 2.8% y/y in June, from 2.9% y/y in May.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller has warned that the FOMC might need to raise rates if inflation data continued to signal broad-based inflation pressures.
“If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term”, Waller said.
“I would be very pleased to see a lower reading on core inflation, but after its escalation over the first half of this year, I will need to see several months of lower readings to feel that inflation is moving in the right direction”, he added.
He also said that it's still reasonable to expect that outcome, in which case he would support continuing to hold rates steady.
“The FOMC has to be ready to tighten monetary policy to prevent a repeat of the 2021-to-2022 inflation episode” Waller warned.

China's trade surplus came in higher than expected in June.
The trade surplus rose to $126bn in June, from $105bn in May; for H1:26, the surplus came to $576bn, down slightly from $583bn in H1:25.
Imports were up 36.0% y/y in June, from 27.4% y/y in May.
Export growth accelerated for a third month, increasing 27.0% y/y in June, after rising 19.4% y/y in May.
Car exports rose 71.2% y/y in June, putting the country's goal of exporting more than 10m cars this year within reach.
This is likely to heighten trade tensions with partners such as the EU.

Japan's May industrial production growth was revised down to 0.1% m/m, from 0.5% m/m reported earlier and 0.5% m/m in April.
This sees annual industrial production down 2.1% in May (previously -1.7% y/y).
Capacity utilisation was up 0.1% m/m in May, after dipping 0.8% m/m in April.

Locally, mining production for May is due out today.
Mining production was up 3.3% m/m and 8.2% y/y in April on the back of strong growth in platinum production (+36.5% y/y).
Volumes likely dipped slightly in May, albeit that mining commodity prices remained broadly supportive.

Brent crude oil is currently at $84.90/bbl; ($83.30/bbl*).
Gold is at $4029/oz ($3993/oz*).
SA CDS 125bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 229bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.62%*, German bund at 3.11%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.49%*, SA's R2035 at 8.32%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF