In the loop 20 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.77/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.82/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.9%), CLP (+0.5%) and COP (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-2.5%), THB (-1.3%) and PHP (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; he Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: Day 20 of the conflict showed further signs of escalation alongside growing international concern over the economic and geopolitical spillovers.
The sustained disruption has deepened fears of a prolonged supply shock in global oil markets, contributing to elevated energy prices and heightened volatility in financial markets.
Diplomatic efforts intensified, with major powers urging restraint and attempting to broker limited de-escalation measures.

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack warned that the surge in energy prices, driven by the Iran war, poses significant downside risks to the global economy.
She emphasised that the Fund is closely monitoring transmission channels through commodity prices, inflation, inflation expectations and financial markets.
She noted that disruptions to oil and gas supply have already pushed prices above $100/bbl.
Kozack cautioned that, if elevated energy prices are sustained, they will lead to higher global inflation and weaker economic growth.
She further explained that even smaller sustained increases are impactful, with every 10% rise in oil prices adding roughly 40 bps to inflation and weighing on output.
The overall scale of the fallout will depend on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict.

US new home sales fell more sharply than expected in January, dropping to their lowest level since 2022 as buyer demand weakened.
Sales declined 17.6% m/m to an annualised pace of 587,000 in January, following a 6.8% m/m fall in December from 712,000.
The median price of a new home decreased 6.8% y/y, to $400,500, while inventory of new homes fell by 4%.
The decline in sales was likely exacerbated by severe winter weather across much of the country.
Although builders continue to offer incentives and reduce prices, affordability constraints remain a key factor keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines.

Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
President Cyril Ramaphosa yesterday delivered an upbeat and forward-looking assessment of SA's economic trajectory at the News24 On the Record Summit.
He stressed that the country had reached a turning point after years of stagnation.
He highlighted a noticeable improvement in economic growth, rising investment, and increasing job creation.
Ramaphosa attributed these gains to the government's multi-year reform agenda implemented across key sectors.
Ramaphosa emphasised that wide-ranging reforms in the electricity sector had brought an end to load shedding, while improvements at Transnet's rail network and ports were helping to boost exports and revenue.
He added that SA's achievements are the product of collaboration between government, business, labour and broader society.
However, Ramaphosa said that SA's major challenges, including job creation, could only be solved through such partnerships.

Brent crude oil is currently at $107.32/bbl; ($108.65/bbl*).
Gold is at $4719/oz ($4650/oz*).
SA CDS 179bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 288bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.96%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.17%*, SA's R2035 at 9.03%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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