In the loop 20 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is unchanged this morning, at R16.52/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.52/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the IDR (+0.5%), RON (+0.1%) and PHP (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.2%), COP (-0.8%) and ZAR (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: fighting between the US and Iran continues, with both sides moving farther away from a negotiated settlement and increasing military pressure across the Gulf region.
Iranian officials have reported additional strikes on facilities in southern Iran.
Washington has stated that the operations were intended to degrade Iran's ability to threaten regional shipping and launch attacks against US forces.
Iran responded with a new round of missile and drone attacks against US and allied targets across the Gulf.

Central bank watch: the SARB will meet on Thursday to decide on interest rates; the bank is largely expected to hike repo rate by 25 bps, to 7.25%.
The ECB's Governing Council is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, after June's hike.
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka will likely keep its policy rate unchanged, at 8.75%, on Wednesday, after raising by 100 bps in May.
Bank Indonesia is likely to lift its key rate by 25 bps, to 6.00%, on Wednesday.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey to keep its one-week repo rate at 37% on Thursday.

Japan's CPI for June is in the spotlight on Friday; inflation likely picked up in June as higher energy costs continued to feed through to consumer prices.

The UK jobs data, due out tomorrow, will likely show that annual regular pay growth in the private sector held unchanged, at 2.9%, in the three months to May.
The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.9%, in May.
UK CPI for June, due on Wednesday, is expected to have eased to 2.7% y/y, from a 2.8% y/y increase May.
The easing will be driven predominantly by fuel prices.
The UK composite PMI for July, scheduled for Friday, is expected to have increased to 49.7, from in July, from 49.3 in June.
Germany's July ZEW survey expectations are due out tomorrow.
The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for July is scheduled for release on Thursday; sentiment is likely to have increased to -17.0 in July, from -17.7 in June.
The July composite PMI is due on Friday and is likely to have increased to 50.3, from 50.0 in June.
The ECB's 1-year inflation expectations, also due on Friday, is likely to have moderated to 3.3% in June, from 3.5% in May.
The 3-year inflation expectations are also expected to have moderated in June, to 2.8%, from 2.9% in May.

The US leading indicator June, due out today, is expected to have declined by 0.1% m/m, after a 0.1% m/m increase in May.
The US composite PMI for July, scheduled for release on Friday, is expected to have increased to 52.1, from 51.9 in June.
Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have increased in July.
US new home sales for June, also due for release on Friday, and is expected to have increased by 4.6% m/m, following a 7.3% m/m decline in May.
Homebuilders reported that prospective buyer traffic was largely steady in July, but sales remained sluggish.

Locally, the June CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 4.7% y/y, from 4.5% y/y in May.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5%, after having increased by 0.7% m/m in May.
Core CPI is projected at 3.9% y/y in June, from 3.8% y/y in May.
May retail sales are expected to reflect growth of 1.9% y/y, up from a 1.3% y/y increase in April.

Brent crude oil is currently at $90.24/bbl; ($88.10/bbl*).
Gold is at $4012/oz ($4017/oz*).
SA CDS 129bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 235bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.54%*, German bund at 3.12%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.69%*, SA's R2035 at 8.51%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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