In the loop 20 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.40/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.30/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+1.3%), CLP (+1.1%) and HUF (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.6%), IDR (-0.3%) and THB (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: tensions reignited around the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and diplomatic efforts stalled.
Iran reversed its earlier decision to reopen the strait, reimposing restrictions on commercial shipping after the US confirmed that its naval blockade of Iranian ports would remain in force.
The situation escalated after US forces seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel accused of attempting to breach the blockade, prompting Tehran to vow retaliation.

Central bank watch: the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, at 37.0%.
Bank Indonesia is also likely to keep its key policy rate steady on Wednesday, at 4.75%.
The Philippines central bank is expected to hold its overnight borrowing rate at 4.25% on Thursday.

In Japan, the March CPI data is due on Friday and is expected to show a renewed pickup in core inflation.

The UK February labour market data will be released tomorrow, with y/y regular private sector pay growth in the three months to February expected to slow slightly, to 3.2% y/y, from 3.3%.
CPI for March, due on Wednesday, is forecast to have risen to 3.3% y/y in March, from a 3.0% y/y increase in February.
Such an increase is expected to have largely been driven by a near 9% increase in fuel prices after the surge in oil prices.
The UK composite PMI for April, scheduled for Thursday, is expected to slip to 49.8, from 50.3 in March, reflecting concerns over the economic impact of the Iran war.
In the Eurozone, the April composite PMI is also due on Thursday; the PMI eased to 50.1 in March, from 50.7 in March.
Germany's April Ifo business climate survey, due out on Friday, should provide fresh insight into economic momentum at the start of Q2:26 as geopolitical tensions risk undermining much of this year's expected fiscal support.

Upcoming US data should offer further clues on how households and businesses are coping with higher energy costs.
March retail sales, due for release tomorrow, are expected to have increased by 1.4% m/m, after having increased by 0.6% m/m in February.
Higher gasoline prices likely boosted the headline figure.
Business inventories for February, also due tomorrow, are expected to increase by 0.3% m/m, after a 0.1% m/m decline in January.
On Friday, the final April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected to have improved modestly, to 48.6, from the preliminary reading of 47.6, supported by easing geopolitical concerns.

Locally, the March SACCI business confidence index is due out tomorrow; the confidence index fell to 131.4 in January, from 133.2 in December.
The March CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected at 3.1% y/y, from 3.0% y/y in February.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.6%, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in February.
Core CPI is projected at 3.1% y/y in March, from 3.0% y/y in February.
Also due on Wednesday, February's retail sales are expected to reflect growth of 4.3% y/y, up from a 4.2% y/y increase in January.

Brent crude oil is currently at $95.31/bbl; ($90.38/bbl*).
Gold is at $4792/oz ($4830/oz*).
SA CDS 148bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 229bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.96%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.37%*, SA's R2035 at 8.19%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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