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Standard Bank Group
South Africa 27 May 2026

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • South Africa has entered 2026 with a more stable and resilient electricity supply than in many years. While risks associated with ageing infrastructure remain, recent months have shown clear signs of structural improvement, laying a stronger foundation for the country's medium-term energy outlook.
  • Eskom presented a markedly improved assessment of SA's power system, with the utility projecting no loadshedding over the winter period (1 April to 31 August 2026) in its Winter Outlook. The utility projected that no loadshedding would be required under normal operating conditions, citing sustained improvements in generation performance, lower unplanned outages, and stronger maintenance execution across its fleet. Eskom noted that the Generation Recovery Plan had helped move the power system from a phase of short-term recovery to one of greater operational stability and energy security.
  • Eskom highlighted that the Energy Availability Factor (EAF) had improved materially over the past year, while unplanned outages had declined significantly, compared with previous winters. The utility also pointed to a sharp reduction in diesel usage and costs, reflecting lower reliance on emergency open-cycle gas turbines. The EAF averaged approximately 66.5% thus far this year, up from 62.8% in 2025 and 59.8% in 2024. Unplanned breakdowns have declined, while planned maintenance has been stepped up to enhance long-term reliability.
  • Eskom reported last week that it had reached 365 consecutive days without loadshedding. The utility attributed the achievement to a stronger maintenance programme and the stricter implementation of its operational recovery strategy. The utility also noted that it will increasingly focus on cleaner energy sources. It added that it is taking a careful, evidence-based approach to determining when new generation capacity should come online, with the aim of balancing the transition to cleaner energy with maintaining grid stability.
  • The electricity outlook over the next six months appears relatively stable. Improved generation performance, lower unplanned outages and stronger maintenance execution are expected to support healthier reserve margins than in recent years. However, risks remain from unexpected plant breakdowns, severe winter weather and higher peak electricity demand, particularly during cold spells. Eskom is expected to continue focusing on maintenance and grid recovery efforts, while gradually shifting attention towards cleaner energy investment and long-term energy security.
 

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