Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 15 March 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.77/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.76/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.5%), THB (+0.3%) and COP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-1.1%), PLN (-0.9%) and RON (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has left its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate unchanged, at 2.5%, as expected.
  • The central bank refrained from injecting net MLF cash for the first time since November 2022.
  • China’s new home prices declined by 0.36% m/m in February, after falling by 0.37% m/m in January.
  • New home prices were down in 59 cities in February, compared to 56 cities in January.
  • Chinese authorities have been increasing support for the housing market.
  • They have called on banks to provide financing for developers and allowing local governments to ease rules for homebuyers.
  • This, however, is yet to revive new-home sales.
  • China’s housing minister commented last week that China still faces a “severe task” to stabilize the housing market.
  • The US Empire manufacturing and University of Michigan sentiment indices, both for March, are due out today. 
  • The Empire manufacturing index is likely to have deteriorated in March to -7.0, from -2.4 in February.
  • The index increased in February and was driven by an improvement in the new orders sub-index.
  • Despite the improvement in the new orders sub-index in February, it remained in contraction in that month.
  • This is likely to keep firms cautious about their production and hiring plans in March.
  • University of Michigan sentiment index is expected to have improved to 77.2 in March, from 76.9 in February.
  • Sentiment was likely driven by current economic conditions.
  • In addition, consumers affiliated with a political party in charge tend to have more positive sentiment and favourable expectations for economic conditions than those supporting a party not in power.
  • The 1 yr inflation expectations are likely to have increased to 3.1% in March, from 3.0% in February.
  • The 5-10 yr inflation expectations are expected to have remained unchanged, at 2.9%, in March.
  • Eskom: Stage 2 loadshedding is currently in place until 4pm, when Stage 3 loadshedding will be implemented. 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 10.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 5.0% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $85.25/bbl; ($85.42/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2165/oz ($2160/oz*).
  • SA CDS 221bps*, Brazil 121bps* and Turkey 309bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.29%*, German bund at 2.42%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.66%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.27%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 14h30: US Empire manufacturing (March)
  • 15h15: US industrial production, capacity utilisation, manufacturing production (February)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (March)

Read PDF