Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Corporate Commissioned Research
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
South Africa 24 February 2026

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • South Africa has entered 2026 with a more stable and resilient electricity supply than in many years. While risks associated with ageing infrastructure remain, recent months have shown clear signs of structural improvement, laying a stronger foundation for the country's medium?term energy outlook.
  • In its Summer Outlook covering the period from 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026, Eskom indicated that it does not anticipate loadshedding during 2026. Over the past three months, the country's electricity supply has demonstrated significant and sustained improvement, with Eskom recording its strongest operational performance in nearly a decade. South Africa has now experienced 280 consecutive days without supply interruptions, with only 26 hours of loadshedding in April and May 2025. Eskom attributes this performance to improved plant maintenance, reduced breakdowns, and the continued success of the Generation Recovery Plan, which prioritises plant reliability, disciplined maintenance, and operational resilience.
  • Eskom's Energy Availability Factor (EAF) has improved markedly, averaging approximately 71.1% thus far in Q1:26, up from 62.8% in 2025 and 59.8% in 2024. This improvement reflects sustained progress in restoring fleet reliability and strengthening overall supply stability. The generation fleet has reached or exceeded the 70% EAF threshold on 69 occasions between 1 April 2025 and 19 February 2026.
  • During December and January, Eskom continued to report a steady decline in unplanned capacity losses, with outages falling to a nine?year low and diesel usage declining to negligible levels, reflecting improved generation performance. The unplanned outage factor declined to 20.5% in Q4:25, from a peak of 28.8% in Q1:25, and ended 2025 at 15.9%. The planned outage factor (maintenance?related outages) ended 2024 slightly above 19%, but averaged 11.7% in 2025, compared with 12.6% over the same period in 2024.
  • Eskom and government continue to emphasise structural reforms and long?term generation recovery. The utility is bringing additional capacity online to support sustained supply stability, while maintaining reduced reliance on diesel generation and expanding cold?reserve capacity, reflecting the improved balance between electricity supply and demand.
 

Read PDF