In the loop 10 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.36/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.56/$*).
EM currencies were largely up yesterday; the HUF (+2.2%), ZAR (+1.2%) and THB (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the HKD was down by 0.1%.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

China's export growth accelerated more than expected in the first two months of this year, with shipments rising nearly 22% y/y; imports increased by close to 20% y/y.
The strong start suggests that China's external demand was still building momentum before the Iran war erupted at the end of last month, which introduces new risks for China.
The data also arrives just weeks ahead of a summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Trump, with the two expected to discuss their tariff truce.

European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa yesterday discussed the situation in the Strait of Hormuz with Middle Eastern leaders.
The EU leaders expressed concern about the impact of the conflict on energy security and maritime supply routes.
They reiterated their condemnation of indiscriminate attacks in the region and underlined the importance of keeping strategic waterways open.
They conveyed the EU's solidarity with affected countries and reaffirmed the bloc's commitment to dialogue and de-escalation as the only viable path forward.
The leaders highlighted the EU's readiness to support regional stability, including through its maritime security operations.
They signalled openness to strengthening these efforts to prevent disruption to trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

G7 finance ministers held emergency discussions yesterday on the possible coordinated release of oil from strategic reserves.
This came on the back of the surge in crude oil prices following the escalation of the war involving Iran and mounting concerns over disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The talks were held in coordination with the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Talks focused on assessing the impact of higher energy prices on global markets and inflation, and on whether a joint drawdown of emergency reserves could help stabilise supply and calm markets.
While several G7 members, including the US, expressed support for a potential release, no final decision was announced.
Ministers emphasised the need to monitor developments closely and ensure that any action is coordinated and proportionate.

The NY Fed 1 yr inflation expectations for February were down to a one-year low before the Iran war.
One-year ahead expectations declined to 3.0% in February, from 3.1% in January.
Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained steady, at 3%.
The data does not yet capture the surge in oil prices following the outbreak of the conflict with Iran.
Even so, the underlying trend remains broadly supportive, which would be encouraging for the US economic outlook if the current spike in energy prices proves to be temporary.
That said, the sharp increases already seen in energy prices are likely to push overall inflation higher in the near term, and could shift public sentiment toward a less benign view of price pressures over the coming years.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for February, due for release today, likely increased to 99.6 in February, from 99.3 in January.
Existing home sales for February, also due today, are expected to have decreased by 0.8% m/m, following an 8.4% m/m decline in January.

Locally, GDP growth for Q4:25 is in the spotlight today and is expected to have increased by 0.3% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.5% q/q (sa) in Q3:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 1.8% in Q4:25, after having increased 2.1% y/y in Q3:25.

Brent crude oil is currently at $92.75/bbl; ($98.96/bbl*).
Gold is at $5167/oz ($5138/oz*).
SA CDS 161bbps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.09%*, German bund at 2.85%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.80%*, SA's R2035 at 8.64%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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