In the loop 09 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.48/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.49/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+1.0%), IDR (+0.7%) and ZAR (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-3.8%), RUB (-1.3%) and CLP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Hang Seng is up, while the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down.

Speaking at a virtual BRICS summit, Brazilian President Lula called for the meeting to address US trade practices, including 50% tariffs on many Brazilian exports and similar measures against India.
The Brazilian and Chinese leaders urged BRICS nations to stand united in defending the multilateral system, which they said is under threat.
Brazilian President Lula yesterday denounced the use of tariffs as a form of “blackmail”.
Lula emphasised that “tariff blackmail is being normalised as an instrument to seize markets and interfere in domestic affairs”.
Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that trade wars are destabilising the global economy.
Xi stressed that “trade wars and tariff wars waged by some country severely disrupt the world economy and undermine international trade rules”.

UK retail sales rose in August, with the British Retail Consortium (BRC) reporting a 2.9% y/y increase in like-for-like sales, up from 1.8% y/y in July.
The gain was driven by record-breaking sunny weather and falling interest rates, even as higher energy bills and food prices continued to weigh on consumer confidence.

NY Fed inflation expectations for one year ahead increased in August, while inflation expectations for three and five years ahead remained unchanged.
Projections for 1-year ahead inflation expectations increased, to 3.2% in August, from 3.1% in July.
Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained steady, at 3%, while expectations five years ahead held at 2.9% in August.
Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the data to assess whether tariffs could lead to a persistent inflation spike.

The US NFIB small business sentiment index, scheduled for release today, is expected to show little change in August, following a 1.7pt increase to 100.3 in July.
The index is expected to have edged up slightly, to 100.5 in August.
Businesses are beginning to feel the gradual impact of rising tariffs, with concerns mounting over cost pressures.
According to the latest Conference Board survey of CEOs, 64% of respondents plan to pass higher tariff-related costs on to consumers, underscoring the inflationary risks facing households.

The preliminary benchmark revision to Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data is expected to show payrolls turning negative as early as October 2024, rather than in June 2025.
This implies that labour market conditions have been weak for longer than previously thought.
The revision will also likely reveal that payrolls in summer 2024, when breakeven job growth was estimated at over 200k, were running well below stall speed.

Locally, GDP growth for Q2:25 is in the spotlight today and is expected to have increased by 0.6% q/q (sa), after having increased by 0.1% q/q (sa) in Q1:25.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 0.8% in Q2:25, matching Q1:25’s increase.
Stats SA’s monthly indicators reflect expansions in mining and manufacturing production as well as real retail sales in Q2:25 following contractions in Q1:25.
Real wholesale trade is expected to stage a smaller contraction in Q2:25 than in Q1:25.
However, we remain concerned about downside risks to the general growth improvement that we foresee in the medium term.
Headwinds, such as persistent real electricity tariff increases and municipal service delivery shortcomings, could negatively impact sentiment and the general operating environment for businesses.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.49/bbl; ($66.02/bbl*).
Gold is at $3656/oz ($3635/oz*).
SA CDS 168bps*, Brazil 137bps* and Turkey 272bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.64%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.64%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.54%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF