In the loop 25 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.01/$, after closing steady yesterday (R16.02/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.3%), KRW (+0.2%) and HKD (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.0%), ARS (-0.7%) and COP (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has threatened economic penalties against any country doing business with Iran as part of Washington's “economic D-Day” campaign to isolate Tehran.
Bessent said countries would be given a specific deadline to sever economic ties with Iran, or face unilateral US action, as Washington intensifies its crackdown on Iran's financial networks worldwide.
The US has also imposed sanctions on more than 60 entities, targeting five of Iran's key economic lifelines: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping.

Trade wars: the US is reportedly preparing to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods over concerns about excess manufacturing capacity.
This comes ahead of a planned summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping next month.
The move would bring Trump's second-term tariffs on China back to around 20%, a level Beijing has previously said is consistent with the US-China trade truce.
These duties would come on top of the tariffs introduced during Trump's first term and maintained under the Biden administration.
Negotiations are ongoing over which tariffs could be suspended and for how long.
Washington and Beijing are also seeking to extend their one-year trade truce, which expires on 10 November.

President Trump pledged to double tariffs on Canadian vehicles and auto parts from next year.
The current 25% tariff applies only to non-US content; Trump said that the rate would rise to 50% from 1 January.
The latest threat follows a breakdown in US-Canada trade negotiations, which has already prompted a 50% levy on billions of dollars of Canadian goods.

The German IFO business climate index for August, due out today, is expected to have increased to 87.2, from 86.6 in July.

The US S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index for June is due for release today and is expected to show an improvement in house price growth.
The FHFA house price index for June is also on the cards; the index is likely to have improved by 0.2% m/m in June, after having increased by 0.3% m/m in May.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for August will also be published.
The consumer sentiment index is likely to have slipped to 90.2 in August, from 90.8 in July.

Locally, the SARB's leading indicator for June is due for release today; the leading indicator slipped to 118.2 in May, from 118.6 in April.
The coincident indicator, which measures current economic conditions, slipped, to 94.6 in April, from 94.9 in March.
The lagging indicator increased in April, to 104.6, from 104.4 in March.

Brent crude oil is currently at $92.04/bbl; ($92.17/bbl*).
Gold is at $4645/oz ($4652/oz*).
SA CDS 119bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 220bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.71%*, German bund at 3.25%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.74%*, SA's R2035 at 8.52%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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