In the loop 14 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.18/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.13/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the KRW (+0.4%), ZAR (+0.3%) and HUF (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the IDR (-0.4%), RUB (-0.3%) and THB (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: talks between Iran and Gulf states on the Strait of Hormuz arrangements were postponed, reflecting continued disagreements over maritime security and shipping.
According to Omani officials, the meeting was delayed because further consensus was needed among participants.
At the same time, US President Donald Trump stated that he still expected the seven-month conflict to end before the end of the year.

Central bank watch: the Fed will meet on Wednesday and is expected to keep the Fed's fund rate unchanged.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously said that he wants “unfiltered market signals to guide economic reality”.
The BOE is likely to keep its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday.
The central bank is also expected to announce the pace of its bond sales for the year ahead.
The BOJ is set to hike its target rate by 25 bps, to 1.25%, on Friday.

Germany's September ZEW survey expectations are due out tomorrow; the index improved to 34.2 in August, from 26.2 in July.
Eurozone industrial production, due out on Wednesday, is expected to have decreased by 0.1% y/y in July, after having increased by 0.1% y/y in June.
Eurozone CPI of August (final estimate) is due out on Thursday and likely to come in at 3.3% y/y, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.9% y/y July.
The ECB's 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations are due out on Friday.
The 1-year ahead inflation expectations are expected to have increased to 3.0% in August, from 2.9% in July.
The 3-year ahead inflation expectations are expected to have increased to 2.8% in August, from 2.7% in July.

The UK jobs data, due out tomorrow, will likely see y/y regular pay growth in the private sector remaining unchanged, at 2.8% y/y in the three months to July, from 2.8% y/y in the three months to June.
The unemployment rate is also expected to have remained unchanged in July, at 4.9%.
UK CPI for August, due on Wednesday, is expected to have increased to 3.1% y/y, from a 2.9% y/y increase July.

The US Empire State manufacturing index for September, due out tomorrow, is likely to have slipped to 15.0, from 20.6 in August.
The NAHB housing market index for September is scheduled for release on Wednesday; the index is expected to have slipped marginally, to 34, from 35 in August.
Housing starts for August, out on Thursday, likely increased by 6.9% m/m, after July's 12.4% m/m decrease.
The US leading indicator August, due for release on Friday, is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m, following a 0.2% m/m in July.

Locally, retail sales for July are due out on Wednesday and are expected to reflect growth of 1.0% y/y, down from a 1.6% y/y increase in June.
The BER will also release the Q3:26 inflation expectations on Wednesday.
The Q3:26 BER consumer confidence index is due out on Thursday; the index fell to -19 in Q2:26, from -7 in Q1:26.

Brent crude oil is currently at $107.31/bbl; ($104.61/bbl*).
Gold is at $4329/oz ($4349/oz*).
SA CDS 117bps*, Brazil 110bps* and Turkey 224bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.96%*, German bund at 3.50%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.93%*, SA's R2035 at 8.72%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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