In the loop 30 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.38/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.47/$*).
EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the COP (+0.8%), RUB (+0.7%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-1.4%), CZK (-0.7%) and HUF (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: prospects for a near-term breakthrough appear limited.
Iranian officials indicated that they were awaiting a formal US response to Tehran's latest ceasefire proposal, which includes a phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the US economic blockade.

Central bank watch: The Central Bank of Sri Lanka kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.75% today, as expected.

The UK GDP data for the Q2:26 (final estimate) is due for release today; the figures are likely to see the economy having expanded by 0.4% q/q in Q2:26, from 0.6% q/q in Q1:26.

Fed Governor Michael Barr yesterday reiterated that further interest rate increases are likely to be needed to bring inflation back under control.
Barr said his base case view is that additional policy adjustments will be necessary to ensure inflation returns to the Fed's 2% target in a timely manner.
He noted that he has yet to see a clear trend toward that goal.
Barr further commented that while inflation remains significantly above target, resilient consumer spending and strong business investment continue to support a solid labour market.

New York Fed President John Williams commented yesterday that one more interest rate hike later this year may be appropriate to help contain inflation.
However, he stressed that there was no urgency to tighten policy again following the Fed's rate increase earlier this month.
He added that this gives policymakers time to assess incoming economic data.

US personal income, due out today, is expected to have increased by 0.4% m/m in August, the same as in July.
Personal spending is likely to have increased by 0.9% m/m in August, after having increased by 0.2% in July.
The updated estimate of Q2:26 US GDP is also scheduled for release today.
GDP is expected at 1.5% q/q (annualised) in Q2:26, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.1% q/q (annualised) in Q1:26.

Locally, it's a busy day as far as data releases are concerned.
The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for August are on the cards today; PSCE increased by 7.41% y/y in July.
The August PPI is expected at 5.6% y/y, after having increased by 5.7% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in August, following a 1.0% decline in July.
The August trade balance is due later today; the trade surplus is expected at R17.0bn in August, from a surplus of R20.1bn in July.
The monthly budget balance for August is scheduled for release; the budget balance came in at a deficit of R161.6bn in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $103.43/bbl; ($102.59/bbl*).
Gold is at $4184/oz ($4182/oz*).
SA CDS 132bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 246bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.23%*, German bund at 3.62%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.01%*, SA's R2035 at 8.81%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

08h00: Japan machine tool orders (August – final)
08h00: UK GDP (Q2:26 – final)
08h00: SA M3 and PSCE (August)
11h30: SA PPI (August)
13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (25 September)
14h00: SA trade balance (August), monthly budget balance (August)
14h15: US ADP employment change (September)
14h30: US personal income and spending (August), core PCE (August), GDP (Q2:26 – third estimate), advance goods trade balance (August)

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