In the loop 25 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.94/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.06/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.6%), HUF (+0.5%) and IDR (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.4%), PHP (-0.1%) and INR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: Iran yesterday informed member states of the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz, provided they coordinate with Iranian authorities.
Tehran stated it has taken “necessary and proportionate measures” to prevent adversaries and their allies from using the waterway to support hostile operations.
According to the communication, vessels linked to the US, Israel, or other parties involved in the conflict, will not be granted innocent or non-hostile passage.
Iranian officials have also indicated that the current regime governing access to the strait is unlikely to revert to pre-war conditions, even after the conflict subsides.
The US has delivered a 15-point plan to Iran to help bring the conflict to a close; the details of the proposal remain unclear.

BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill yesterday warned that policymakers should not allow heightened uncertainty to delay action against rising inflation, particularly as energy prices surge following US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
He emphasised that the BOE stands ready to respond to persistent inflationary pressures.
He cautioned that the risks to its ability to maintain price stability are increasing.
Pill added that potential structural changes in the economy warrant a cautious policy stance.
The BOE signalled last week that interest rate hikes may be necessary to address inflation driven by ongoing disruption in energy markets.

The UK February CPI report, due out today, is likely to show that inflation held steady, at 3% y/y.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.4% in February, after having declined by 0.5% in January.
Core CPI is likely to come in at 3.1% y/y in February, unchanged from January.
The house price index for January is scheduled for release today; house prices increased by 2.4% y/y in December, down from 2.8% y/y in November.
Germany's Ifo business climate index, also on the cards today, will provide a further gauge of economic momentum in Q1:26.
The business climate index is expected to have slipped to 86.3 in March, from 88.6 in February.
Both the expectations and current assessment indices are expected to have deteriorated in February.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that rising energy prices are adding to inflationary pressures at a time when the Fed is seeking clearer signs of easing before considering further interest rate cuts.
He warned that potential damage to energy infrastructure or disruptions to supply chains in the Persian Gulf could keep oil prices elevated, even if the conflict were to end.
Goolsbee emphasised that the Fed would need to see tangible progress on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts.
He added that policymakers must be confident that inflation is firmly on a path back towards the 2% target before easing policy further.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI registered 51.4 in March, from 51.9 in February.
Business activity slowed to almost a one-year low, while prices paid for materials and other inputs have picked up in the wake of the Iran war.
Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers increased to a 7-month high.
The manufacturing PMI picked up in March, to 52.4, from 51.6, while the services index slipped to 51.1 in March, from 51.7 in February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $99.83/bbl; ($104.49/bbl*).
Gold is at $4559/oz ($4475/oz*).
SA CDS 196bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 296bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.35%*, German bund at 3.02%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.1%*, SA's R2035 at 9.00%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

Read PDF