Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
In the loop 17 July 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.47/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.42/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+0.7%), IDR (+0.25and THB (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.8%), RUB (-0.8%) and ZAR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Iran war: Washington has formally moved ahead with the reimposition of a blockade on Iranian ports.
  • Iran has continued to assert its influence over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Attacks and threats against commercial shipping continue to keep risks elevated.
 
  • Eurozone CPI for June (final estimate) is due out today and is likely to come in at 2.8% y/y in June, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 3.2% y/y May.
  • Core CPI is expected to have remained unchanged from its previous estimate, at 2.4% y/y, from 2.6% y/y in May.
 
  • Kansas Fed President Jeff Schmid yesterday said that inflation remains his primary concern, citing the risk that price pressures could accelerate further in the months ahead. 
  • He noted that inflation is no longer being driven solely by higher energy costs, but is broad-based across goods and services, with food prices continuing to rise faster than their pre-pandemic trend. 
  • Schmid cautioned that it is too early to view June's better-than-expected inflation data as the start of a sustained disinflation trend.
  • He stressed that his primary focus remains on inflation when determining the appropriate course for monetary policy. 
  • His remarks align with similar warnings from several Fed officials this week reiterating that they stand ready to act to return inflation to the Fed's 2% target.
 
  • Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan yesterday argued that interest rates should move higher, saying inflation does not yet appear to be on a sustainable path back to the Fed's 2% target. 
  • She said that a modest increase in borrowing costs would better balance the risks to the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. 
  • Logan also addressed the impact of artificial intelligence.
  • She noted that, while AI could eventually deliver a significant boost to productivity, its near-term effect has been to push up prices.
 
  • The US NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell in July, to 34, from an upwardly revised 36 in June.
  • The index has remained below the 50 neutral level for a 15th consecutive month, marking the longest stretch of weak builder sentiment since 2012. 
  • The decline reflected persistent affordability challenges, rising land and construction costs, skilled labour shortages, and broader economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on demand for new homes. 
  • Builders reported softer current sales, weaker expectations for sales over the next six months, and a further decline in prospective buyer traffic. 
  • Business inventories increased by 0.3% m/m in May, after having increased by an upwardly revised 0.6% m/m in April.
 
  • Housing starts for June, scheduled for release today, likely jumped by 11.2% m/m, after May's 15.4% m/m decline.
  • Building permits for June are expected to have declined by 0.2% m/m, from a 0.9% m/m decline in May.
  • The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for July likely increased to 51.0, from 49.5 in June.
  • The one-year ahead inflation outlook is seen moderating to 4.4% in July, from 4.6% in June.
  • The 5-10-year ahead inflation outlook is expected to have remained unchanged, at 3.3%, in July.
 
  • Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 39.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 7.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $84.94/bbl; ($84.23/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3982/oz ($3976/oz*).
  • SA CDS 125bps*, Brazil 123bps* and Turkey 230bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.54%*, German bund at 3.13%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.59%*, SA's R2035 at 8.42%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 10h00: Eurozone current account balance (May)
  • 11h00: Eurozone CPI (June – final)
  • 14h30: US housing starts, June, building permits (June)
  • 15h15: US industrial production (June), manufacturing production (June), capacity utilisation (June)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment (July), 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (July)
 

Read PDF