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Standard Bank Group
In the loop 28 November 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.21/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.16/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PLN (+1.2%), CZK (+1.1%) and RON (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-6.8%), BRL (-2.1%) and INR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Bank of Korea has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 3.0%.
  • The Mexican central bank monetary policy meeting minutes will be released today; a cautious tone is expected given Donald Trump’s re-election as US president.
 
  • Eurozone consumer confidence (final estimate) is due out today; the confidence index deteriorated to -13.7 in November, from -12.5 in October.
  • Economic confidence, also scheduled for release today, is expected to have slipped to 95.2 in November, from 95.6 in October.
  • The gauge for confidence in the services sector is also likely to have slipped in November, to 6.5, from 7.1 in October.
 
  • Several Eurozone countries’ CPI data releases for November are scheduled for today.
  • Spanish CPI is likely to come in at 2.4% y/y in November, from 1.8% y/y in October.
  • German CPI is also due today and is expected at 2.5% y/y in November, from 2.4% y/y in October.
  • The data comes ahead of the Eurozone CPI for November scheduled for release tomorrow.
  • Eurozone CPI for November likely increased to above the ECB’s 2% inflation target.
  • CPI is expected to come in at 2.2% y/y in November on the back of higher fuel costs, from 2.0% y/y in October.
 
  • US personal income overshot expectations in October, increasing by 0.6% m/m, from an increase of 0.3% m/m in September.
  • Personal spending was in line with expectations, increasing by 0.4% m/m in October, after increasing by 0.6% m/m in September.
  • Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased by 0.3% m/m in October, matching September’s increase.
  • The increase in the core PCE measure supports the case for the Fed to adopt a cautious approach to interest rate cuts.
  • Several Fed policymakers recently expressed their preference for a gradual interest rate-cutting cycle.
  • The Fed meets on 17-18 December and is largely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps.
 
  • US markets are closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday.
 
  • Locally, the October PPI is on the cards and is expected at -0.2% y/y, from 1.0% y/y in September.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is expected to have matched September’s 0.3% decline.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 5.8% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 28.0% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $72.61/bbl; ($72.83/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2630/oz ($2637/oz*).
  • SA CDS 185bps*, Brazil 156bps* and Turkey 257bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.26%*, German bund at 2.16%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.18%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.22%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 11h30: SA PPI (October)
  • 12h00: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence (November)
 

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