In the loop 24 June 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.55/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.54/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.5%), KRW (+0.2%) and MYR (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-1.2%), MXN (-1.2%) and CLP (-0.9%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: talks between the US and Iran continued to focus on operationalising the previously agreed 60-day roadmap towards a final peace deal.
Technical teams are working through nuclear, sanctions, and security arrangements.
However, progress was clouded by disagreement over nuclear inspections.
Washington insisted that Iran had agreed to grant access to international inspectors, while Tehran publicly rejected this, stating that no such visits have been scheduled.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Thailand is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold, at 1.0%, with inflation still within its target band.

BOE policymaker Alan Taylor yesterday said that the central bank should be prepared to lower interest rates if a more favourable inflation outlook materialised, particularly if peace is achieved in the Middle East and energy prices decline.
He noted that, under such a scenario, policymakers must be ready to act and allow interest rates to continue their gradual move towards a neutral level.
Taylor added that rates could even fall below neutral if economic activity weakens significantly and inflation risks shift to the downside.
However, he stressed that borrowing costs should remain unchanged, for now, given the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty.
He also cautioned against focusing too heavily on past inflation shocks.
Taylor argued that households and businesses need clearer guidance on the likely path of inflation and interest rates.

ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic yesterday said the ECB's recent interest rate increase was justified given expectations that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period.
He noted that both headline and core inflation are projected to stay above target well into 2027.
On inflation expectations, Vujcic said that they remain well anchored over the medium- to long term.
He described the Eurozone economy as relatively resilient despite ongoing challenges.

Germany's May Ifo business climate survey, due out today, should provide fresh insight into economic momentum in Q2:26 amid higher energy prices.
The business climate index is expected to have increased to 85.5 in June, from 84.9 in May.
The expectations index is likely to have improved, to 84.8 in June, from 83.8 in May.
The current assessment gauge is expected at 86.3 in June, slightly up from 86.1 in May.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday expressed confidence in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's ability to steer monetary policy effectively.
He noted that he believes that Warsh would strike the right balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth.
Bessent noted that President Trump had emphasised during Warsh's swearing-in ceremony that the Fed would remain independent in its policy decisions.
Further, Bessent expects inflationary pressures to ease as US and Iranian negotiators work towards ending the conflict in Iran.
He remarked that lower fuel prices should help bring inflation back towards the Fed's target.

US new home sales for May are scheduled for release today and are expected to have increased by 3.2% m/m, following a 6.2% m/m decline in April.
Homebuilders reported improved prospective-buyer traffic as well as an uptick in sales.

Brent crude oil is currently at $76.45/bbl; ($77.08/bbl*).
Gold is at $4077/oz ($4117/oz*).
SA CDS 126bps*, Brazil 127bps* and Turkey 224bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.49%*, German bund at 2.91%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.50%*, SA's R2035 at 8.31%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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