Closing the loop
Shireen Darmalingam
Market highlights:
- The rand is weaker at R15.95/$ (R15.92/$*) today; it ranged between R15.88/$ and R16.00/$.
- The currency is above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages (R15.23/$, R15.30/$ and R15.23/$).
- EM currencies are mixed today; the RUB (+1.1%), KRW (+0.7%) and HUF (+0.6%) are the biggest gainers; the TRY (-0.8%), COP (-0.7%) and BRL (-0.6%) are the biggest losers.
- UK CPI increased to 9.0% y/y in April from 7.0% y/y in March.
- On a m/m basis, CPI was up by 2.5% in April from an increase of 1.1% in March.
- The main driver of the April increase was a 47% increase in household utility prices.
- This reflected a hike in the energy price cap set by the energy regulator in February.
- Services inflation, driven by restaurants and hotels, increased in April.
- Eurozone CPI remained steady at 7.4% y/y in April; CPI increased by 0.6% m/m in April, the same as in March.
- CPI was once again driven by higher food and fuel prices in April.
- Supply-chain bottlenecks and the knock-on effects of the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to higher prices.
- Today’s data will likely support the case for the ECB to hike interest rates at the July policy meeting.
- The minutes of the ECB’s April MPC meeting are due for release tomorrow.
- Locally, the April CPI remained steady at 5.9% y/y.
- On a m/m basis, CPI increased by 0.6% from a 1.0% increase in March.
- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased to 3.9% y/y in April from 3.8% y/y in March.
- The April print was driven by higher food and fuel prices.
- We expect the SARB to hike the repo rate by 50 bps at the MPC meeting tomorrow.
- March retail sales undershot expectations increasing by 1.3% y/y from a contraction of 0.9% y/y in February.
- On a m/m basis, sales declined by 0.3% in March from a fall of 2% in February.
- Stage 2 loadshedding will be implemented from 17h00 until 22h00 due to capacity constraints.
- The oil price is up by 0.1% today, and up by 44.1% in the year-to-date.
- The gold price is down by 0.5% today, and down by 0.9% in the year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is at $112.02/bbl ($111.93/bbl*).
- Gold price is at $1812/oz ($1821/oz*).
- SA CDS is at 266bps (263bps*), Brazil 240bps (239bps*), Turkey 709bps (704bps*).
- Yields: US 10yr at 2.95% (2.98%*), German bund at 1.056% (1.046%*) and SA 10-year generic at 10.40% (10.40%*), SA’s R186 is at 8.36% (8.38%*).
- The JSE ALSI is down by 0.9% today (+0.7%*).
* Denotes yesterday close.
Key events and data:
- 01h50: Japan trade balance (April)
- 10h00: Eurozone ECB current account balance (March)
- 13h30: Eurozone ECB MPC minutes (April meeting)
- 14h30: US initial jobless claims (14 May)
- 15h00: SA SARB MPC interest rate decision – 50 bps increase expected
- 16h00: US existing homes sales (April), leading index (April)
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