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In the loop 05 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.17/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.10/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.8%) and HUF (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the KRW (-0.8%), ZAR (-0.8%) and MXN (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Central bank watch: the BOE is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady today.
  • The central bank is expected to strike a noncommittal tone on the timing of any future interest rate cuts at its meeting. 
  • The BOE is set to publish updated forecasts today.
  • These are likely to incorporate analyses of how recent Budget policies are affecting inflation, as well as new research into the impact of President Trump's tariffs on global trade.
  • The ECB is also likely to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold today.
  • Better-than-expected GDP growth in Q4:25 may provide policymakers the cover needed to keep rates unchanged.
 
  • The UK Decision Maker Panel's (DMP) January survey results on inflation expectations will be released today. 
  • The three-month ahead inflation expectations are expected to come in 3.5% in January, from 3.6% in December.
  • The one-year ahead inflation expectations are expected at 3.2%, unchanged from December.
  • In the Eurozone, December retail sales data are due later today, with annual growth expected to slow 1.7% y/y, from 2.3% y/y in November.
  • On a m/m basis, sales are likely to have declined 0.2% in December, after a 0.2% increase in November.
 
  • The US ISM services PMI eased to 53.8 in January, from 54.4 in December. 
  • While the headline figure came in above expectations, the underlying details were notably less upbeat than those in the manufacturing survey.
  • The employment sub-index fell to 50.3, well below the forecast of 51.8, while new orders also declined more than anticipated, to 53.1.
  • In contrast, price pressures intensified, with the prices sub-index rising to 66.6 in January, from an upwardly revised 65.1 in December.
  • Changes in trade policy under the Trump administration are prompting some firms to adjust their supply chains. 
  • Consistent with this, the ISM supplier deliveries index climbed to its highest level since October 2024, signalling longer delivery times.
 
  • The US Bureau for Labor Statistics (BLS) commented yesterday that the January non-farm payrolls report has been rescheduled for 11 February.
  • The data, initially scheduled for release on 6 February, has been delayed on the back of the partial government shutdown.
  • January's CPI report, originally due for release on 11 February, will now be released on 13 February. 
  • The release of the December Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) has also been rescheduled.
  • The partial shutdown ended on Tuesday after President Trump signed into law a funding deal.
 
  • Fed Governor Lisa Cook said yesterday that it is essential for the Fed to maintain credibility by bringing inflation back to target in the near term. 
  • She supported the FOMC's recent decision to leave interest rates unchanged, adding that risks are now “tilted toward higher inflation.”
  • Cook joins several other policymakers in striking a more cautious tone, as inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% target for many years. 
  • While she acknowledged that uncertainty around the outlook remains elevated, she expects the labour market to continue benefiting from the three rate cuts delivered last year.
 
  • Locally, electricity production and consumption for December are due for release today.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 11.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 12.0% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $67.91/bbl; ($69.46/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4842/oz ($4964/oz*).
  • SA CDS 137bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 217bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%*, German bund at 2.85%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.14%*, SA's R2035 at 8.02%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data: 

  • 12h00: Eurozone retail sales (December)
  • 13h00: SA electricity production and consumption (December)
  • 14h00: UK BOE interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 15h15: Eurozone ECB interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 15h30: US initial jobless claims (31 January)
  • 16h00: UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) 3m and 1yr inflation expectations (January)
 

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