In the loop 03 November 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.30/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.33/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PEN (+0.5%), COP (+0.2%) and MYR (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.4%), PLN (-0.5%) and ARS (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to pause its rate-cutting cycle when it meets tomorrow.
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The BOE is also likely to hold rates steady on Thursday, breaking its recent pattern of quarterly rate cuts.
Policymakers are unlikely to ease further until there is clear evidence of a sustained decline in inflation.
Malaysia’s central bank is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged on Thursday.

China’s October trade data is due on Friday.
Export growth likely slowed as trade with the US weakened and last year’s high base weighed on comparisons.
However, exports to non-US markets probably offered some support.

Germany’s industrial production data for September, due on Wednesday, is expected to show a rebound after a sharp decline in August.
However, the sector is likely to remain under pressure from US trade policy.
In the UK, the Decision Maker Panel’s (DMP) one- and three-year inflation expectations for October will be released on Thursday.

The US government shutdown, now in its fifth week, continues to delay the release of key official data, including the payrolls, trade, and JOLTS reports.
As a result, investors and policymakers have been relying on private sector data, which lacks the long history and reliability of official payroll figures, to gauge the state of the economy.
The ISM manufacturing PMI for October, due today, is expected to have risen slightly, to 49.4, from 49.1 in September, supported by improving demand.
The ISM services PMI, out on Wednesday, is likely to show activity expanding at a similar pace to the previous month.
The ongoing shutdown is expected to weigh more heavily on consumer sentiment in November.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, due Friday, is expected to have slipped to 53.2 in November, from 53.6 in October.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for October is due for release today; the index increased to 52.2 in September, from 49.5 in August.
The October Naamsa vehicle sales also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 24.3% y/y in September.
The industry-wide PMI for October is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently around the 50-benchmark, at 50.2.
Electricity production and consumption for September are scheduled for release on Thursday
The SARB’s gross and net reserves for October are scheduled for release on Friday.
Gross reserves came in at $69.74bn in September, while net reserves came in at $67.87bn in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.00/bbl; ($65.07/bbl*).
Gold is at $4017/oz ($4002/oz*).
SA CDS 151bps*, Brazil 138bps* and Turkey 244bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.07%*, German bund at 2.63%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.97%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.84%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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