In the loop 30 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.82/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.79/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.7%), COP (+0.9%) and CLP (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.4%), PHP (-0.3%) and IDR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Eurozone inflation expectations 3 years ahead are likely to have moderated to 2.4% in December, from 2.5% in November.
Inflation expectations for 12 months ahead are expected at 2.7% in December, from 2.8% in November.
Eurozone GDP for Q4:25 is scheduled for release today; the data is expected to show that growth slowed in the final quarter.
Several Eurozone countries' GDP data released are also due out today.

President Trump yesterday said that he plans to announce his nominee for Fed chair “next week”.
He reiterated his expectation that the new central bank leader would lower interest rates.
He argued that the US should have the lowest rates anywhere in the world.
Trump added that rates should be “two points, and even three points, lower”.
His remarks come amid an ongoing pressure campaign by Trump and his allies against the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell, including a Justice Department investigation into the renovation of the Fed's headquarters.

The US trade deficit widened more than expected in November, to $56.8bn, from a revised deficit of $29.2bn in October.
Imports rebounded by 5.0% m/m in November, while exports decreased by 3.6% m/m.
The trade data has been subjected to volatility related to the implementation of US trade policy.

Locally, the M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for December are scheduled for release today.
PSCE is expected to have increased by 7.7% y/y in December, after having increased by 7.8% y/y in November.
The monthly Budget balance data for December is also due for release; the budget deficit came in at R15.0bn in November.
The December trade balance is scheduled for release; a trade surplus of R27.3bn in December is expected, from a surplus of R37.7bn in November.

Oil prices climbed above $70/bbl yesterday as markets reacted to escalating threats by President Trump against Iran.
Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 14.6% year-to-date.
The gold price edged lower yesterday, suspending a sharp rally that had lifted the metal to nearly $5,600/oz.
The surge was driven by strong safe-haven demand following reports that President Trump was considering a new strike on Iran.
The gold price is down this morning, and up by 20.8% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $69.74/bbl; ($70.71/bbl*).
Gold is at $5222/oz ($5375/oz*).
SA CDS 137bps*, Brazil 131bps* and Turkey 221bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.84%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.11%*, SA's R2035 at 7.98%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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