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In the loop 14 April 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R19.03/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R19.16/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely up on Friday; the KRW (+2.5%), ZAR (+2.1%) and THB (+1.7%) were the biggest gainers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Bank of Canada is largely expected to hold its overnight rate steady, at 2.75%, on Wednesday.
  • The ECB will meet on Thursday and is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, as the impact of US tariff policies reverberates. 
  • The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to keep the one-week repo rate at 42.5%, also on Thursday.
  • The Bank of Korea will likely also hold its main interest rate steady on Thursday.
 
  • The Trump administration on Friday excluded smartphones, computers and other electronics from increased import duties.
  • China noted that this decision is a small step towards the US rectifying its wrongdoings, and urged the US to do more to revoke the levies.
 
  • China’s Q1:25 GDP data, due on Wednesday, will probably show growth slowing before April’s tariff shock. 
 
  • The German ZEW expectations survey for April, scheduled for release tomorrow, may have fallen significantly on the back of tariff concerns.
  • The UK labour data for the three months to February is also on the cards tomorrow.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.4%, in February .
  • A low response rate to the Labour Force Survey continues to distort the survey results.
  • UK CPI for March, due out on Wednesday, is expected to have eased marginally, to 2.7% y/y, from 2.8% y/y.
  • The Eurozone’s industrial production is scheduled for release tomorrow; industrial production is likely to have been subdued in February, even before we see any impact of US tariffs.
  • The Eurozone final release of CPI for March (Wednesday) is likely to come in at 2.2% y/y, from 2.3% y/y in February.
 
  • The US Empire manufacturing survey for April is due out tomorrow; consumer sentiment is expected to have improved.
  • The US NAHB housing market index for April is also due for release on Wednesday; sentiment likely slipped further.
  • Housing starts and building permits for March are on the cards on Thursday.
  • Both housing starts and building permits are expected to have slipped.
 
  • Locally, mining production for February is due out on tomorrow; production declined by 2.7% y/y in January.
  • Mining production declined by 1.2% m/m in December.
  • February retail sales are on the cards on Wednesday; retail sales likely increased by 6.6% y/y in February, following a 7.0% y/y increase in January.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 13.6% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 22.9% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $64.58/bbl; ($64.76/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3226/oz ($3237/oz*).
  • SA CDS 278bps*, Brazil 206bps* and Turkey 372bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.48%*, German bund at 2.57%*, SA 10-year generic at 11.05%*, SA’s R2035 at 11.03%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 17h00: US NY Fed 1 yr inflation expectations (March)
 

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