In the loop 18 March 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.75/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R18.77/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the HUF (+0.8%), CZK (+0.4%) and COP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.1%), KRW (-0.9%) and MYR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning, the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Several central banks are due to meet this week.
The Fed’s FOMC will meet on 19-20 March and is largely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged.
Investors will keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting for clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.
The Fed’s updated dot plot will also be available this week.
The US NAHB housing market index for March is scheduled for release today; homebuilder sentiment is expected to continue rising in March.
Housing starts for February are due on Tuesday and are expected to have increased despite the increase in mortgage rates.
Existing homes sales will likely have declined slightly in February.

The UK’s BOE is scheduled to meet on Thursday and is expected to hold rates steady.
The UK CPI figures are released a day before the BOE decision; CPI is likely to have moderated in February.
The Eurozone’s CPI (final estimate) for February, out today, will provide details around the drivers for the smaller-than-expected decline in February.
The German ZEW survey for March, due on Tuesday, is the first of the major surveys to be released in the region for March.
The Eurozone and UK composite PMI surveys for March will provide an indication of whether GDP growth gained momentum in Q1:24.
The Swiss National Bank policy rate decision is due on Thursday; the benchmark interest rate is likely to remain on hold.

The BOJ’s interest rate decision is due tomorrow; the central bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged.
Speculation has however increased that the central bank will end its zero-interest policy soon.
Japan’s CPI for February is due three days after the BOJ’s policy decision; core CPI is likely to have picked up well above the 2% target in February.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to keep its key rate unchanged tomorrow.

Central bank decisions from Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia are due this week.

Locally, the February CPI is due out on Wednesday and is expected to come in higher, at 5.5% y/y, from 5.3% y/y in January.
Core CPI is also likely to come in higher, at 4.9% y/y February, from 4.6% y/y in January.
Retail sales for January are also due out on Wednesday and are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y, after having increased by 2.7% y/y in January.
The BER’s inflation expectations survey for Q1:24 is due out tomorrow.
Eskom: Stage 2 loadshedding is currently in place until further notice.

Brent crude oil is currently at $85.63/bbl; ($85.33/bbl*).
Gold is at $2146/oz ($2155/oz*).
SA CDS 222bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 315bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.30%*, German bund at 2.44%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.75%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.35%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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