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In the loop 27 February 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.90/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.00/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (-2.0%), CLP (-1.1%) and ZAR (-1.0%) lost the most; the TWD (+0.3%), RUB (+0.3%) and CNY (+0.2%) gained the most.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.
 
  • Japan's retail trade sales rose strongly in January.
  • Retail sales jumped 4.1% m/m in January, after contracting by 2.0% m/m in December.
  • Sales rose 1.8% y/y in January, up from -0.9% y/y in December.
  • Industrial production also improved at the start of the year, with volumes rising 2.2% m/m in January, after falling 0.1% m/m in December.
  • In y/y terms, industrial production was up 2.3% in January, compared to 2.6% in December.
  • The first indicator for Japan's February CPI pointed towards an acceleration in inflation.
  • The Tokyo CPI increased to 1.6% y/y in February, from 1.5% y/y in January.
 
  • UK GfK consumer confidence slumped unexpectedly in February.
  • The consumer confidence indicator dipped to -19 in February, reversing the gains during January (-16) and December (-17).
  • Ratings of personal finances, over the past year and over the coming year, as well as the climate for major purchases, saw the largest declines.
  • The indicator for the economic situation over the last 12 months remains the weakest, coming in at -44 in February, from -45 in January.
  • The decline in consumer confidence does not bode well for consumer spending.
  • GfK reported that the rise in unemployment could be partly to blame for the dip in consumer confidence.
 
  • US initial jobless claims implied a relatively stable labour market.
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending 21 February came in at 212k.
  • This was up from an upwardly revised 208k in the previous week, putting the four-week moving average at 220k.
  • Continuing claims for the week ended 14 February declined to 1,833k, from a downwardly revised 1,864k in the prior week.
  • Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity improved during February.
  • The overall manufacturing index rose to 5 in February, the highest since November.
  • The production index jumped to 10, from -2 in January.
 
  • Locally, private sector credit extension (PSCE) data for January will be released this morning.
  • Credit growth likely remained resilient; PSCE grew 8.7% y/y in December.
  • Trade data for January is also due today; it may start to more strongly reflect the spike in the terms of trade.
  • Exports have been supported by precious metals exports, while manufacturing exports have been weak.
  • This afternoon's monthly fiscal data is largely inconsequential given the preceding release of the 2026 Budget this week.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 16.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 20.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $70.89/bbl; ($70.75/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $5191/oz ($5167/oz*).
  • SA CDS 138bps*, Brazil 130bps* and Turkey 230bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.00%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 7.99%*, SA's R2035 at 7.87%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: SA M3 and PSCE (January)
  • 11h00: Eurozone ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (January)
  • 14h00: SA trade balance (January), monthly budget balance (January)
  • 15h30: US PPI (January)
 

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