In the loop
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is stronger this morning, at R15.81/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R15.84/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+2.1%), BRL (+1.0%) and THB (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the BGN (-0.3%), RON (-0.3%) and TRY (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde has once again signalled the first rate increase as “likely to be soon”.
- She added that a hike may come "weeks" after net bond-buying has ended early next quarter.
- However, she downplayed the notion of a 50 bps increase amid concerns about regional economic growth.
- The US PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, likely slowed to 6.2% y/y in April, from 6.6% y/y in March.
- The core measure likely eased, too, to 4.9% y/y in April, from 5.2% y/y in March.
- Personal income and spending figures will likely show that US consumers remain resilient despite elevated price pressures.
- US new and pending home sales, due Tuesday and Thursday, likely fell in April.
- The US FOMC April meeting minutes are due this week.
- The World Economic Forum (WEF) takes place in Davos this week.
- Christine Lagarde will speak mid-week; there may be multiple appearances from ECB officials and BOE officials.
- Indonesia is expected to hold rates steady tomorrow.
- RBNZ is expected to hike rates by 50 bps on Wednesday.
- South Korea’s central bank is likely to raise by 25 bps on Thursday.
- Turkey and Nigeria's central banks are expected to hold steady on their interest rates this week.
- SA has the 30th highest Covid caseload, at 3.929 million; 3,220 new cases were reported yesterday.
- 18.041 million people, or 45.33% of the SA adult population, have been fully vaccinated.
- S&P Global Ratings has unexpectedly revised its outlook on SA’s sovereign credit ratings to positive, from stable.
- It signalled that the next move could be a ratings upgrade.
- It cited “expectation of favourable terms of trade, a path toward contained fiscal expenditure, and the implementation of some structural reforms” as drivers.
- The agency added that all that may “lead to a continued easing of fiscal and external pressures”.
- Stage 2 loadshedding is likely to continue in the evenings this week.
- The SARB’s leading indicator for March is due this week; the indexy slipped to 127.2 pts in February, from 127.3 pts in January.
- The April PPI likely increased to 12% y/y, from 11.9% y/y in March; PPI likely moderated to 0.8% m/m in April, from 2.5% m/m in March.
- Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 45.9% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and up by 1.4% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $113.43/bbl; ($112.55/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1854/oz ($1846/oz*).
- SA CDS 273bps*, Brazil 246bps* and Turkey 717bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 2.81%*, German bund at 0.944%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.19%*, SA’s R186 at 8.19%*.
* Denotes Friday’s close.
Key events and data:
- No data releases