In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker, at R16.55/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.42/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PHP (-0.9%), KRW (-0.7%) and ZAR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers; the BRL (+1.0%), RUB (+0.9%) and ARS (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers.
• Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• Iran war: the US will launch a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz later today.
• This comes as talks between the US and Iran broke down over the weekend, with the US stating that Theran failed to commit to refrain from seeking a nuclear weapon and Iran saying that it is up to the US to earn Tehran's trust.
• The embargo is to target maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports only; the flow of oil to China is likely to be impacted.
• These developments have put upward pressure on oil prices again.
• Israel continued its bombardment of Lebanon, even as direct talks between the two nations are ongoing.

• The IMF and World Bank Group's Spring Meetings kick off today in Washington.
• A highlight will be the release of the latest IMF forecasts tomorrow.
• Policymakers are likely to highlight the damaging impacts from the Iran war on the global economy, as concerns about stagflation rise as the war drags on.
• This, coupled with exceedingly high uncertainty, complicates policymaking; discussions will run through to 18 April.
• A range of policymakers are lined up to speak this week; their comments will be closely watched to gauge current thinking around likely policy responses.

• US existing home sales for March are due out this afternoon.
• Existing home sales increased in February, rising by 1.7% m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million, after having declined by 5.4% m/m in January (4.02 million).
• Tomorrow sees the release of US PPI data for March.
• Producer inflation likely accelerated to 4.6% y/y in March, from 3.4% y/y in February; in m/m terms, PPI likely rose 1.1% in March, after increasing 0.7% in February.
• Stripping out food and energy prices, PPI inflation is expected at 4.1% y/y in March, after recording 3.9% y/y in February.

• Japan's money stock rose during March.
• M3 money supply was 1.4% y/y higher in March, compared with an increase of 1.2% y/y in February.
• M2 money stock recorded an increase of 2.0% y/y in March, up from 1.7% y/y in February.
• BOJ Governor Ueda is due to speak at an event later today; inflation has been above the BOJ's target for four years, and the current energy-supply shock is putting further upward pressure on headline inflation.
• Japan's industrial production and capacity utilisation data releases for February are due out tomorrow; core machine orders for February will be released on Wednesday.

• Locally, tomorrow sees the release of mining production data for February.
• Mining production rose 2.9% m/m and 4.6% y/y in January.
• Platinum production volumes were 10.8% y/y higher in January; gold production rose 0.7% y/y in January.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 67.9% year-to-date.
• Opec is due to publish its monthly oil market report today.
• The gold price is down this morning, but up by 9.3% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $102.19/bbl; ($95.20/bbl*).
• Gold is at $4720/oz ($4750/oz*).
• SA CDS 150bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 237bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.32%*, German bund at 3.06%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.56%*, SA's R2035 at 8.40%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

• 16h00: US existing home sales (March)

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