In the loop 17 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.67/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.74/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.8%), CLP (+1.3%) and MXN (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.4%), THB (-0.7%) and IDR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

Middle East war: Day 17 marked a continued escalation of this regional conflict, with intensified Israeli strikes, Iranian retaliation, and expanding drone warfare across the Gulf.
There was also growing international diplomatic pressure to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
US President Trump has urged NATO members and other allies to contribute naval forces to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
He warned that NATO faces a “very bad future” if it does not assist in securing the crucial maritime corridor.
The EU said yesterday that it wants greater clarity on the US's “strategic goals” and “military aims” before responding to President Trump's request for European warships.
It noted that it is considering expanding Operation Aspides, its existing naval mission tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf.
The EU also indicated that it may explore forming a “coalition of the willing” to provide military support on an ad hoc basis.

Central bank watch: The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps, to 4.10%.
The RBA noted that it is stepping up its battle against stubborn inflation.

President Trump yesterday praised Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh and said the US has a “wonderful new head of the Fed coming in”.
He also once again criticised current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying that Powell should cut rates “right now”.
He said that the Fed should call a special meeting and cut rates immediately.
The Fed is due to make an announcement on rates tomorrow and is largely expected to keep rates unchanged.

The S&P Global UK consumer index fell to 44.1 in March, down from 44.8 in February, marking its lowest level in 14 months.
According to S&P Global, four of the five underlying components of the index either remained in negative territory or deteriorated further during the survey period, highlighting the continued weakness in consumer sentiment.
It also noted that households now view an interest rate cut by the BOE as increasingly unlikely, largely due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The war has renewed concerns about a deteriorating economic outlook and the potential for further increases in fuel and energy prices.
The BOE is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
Policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

The Eurozone ZEW expectations survey for March is due for release today; the index decreased to 39.4 in February, from 40.8 in January.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for March is also due out today; the index is likely to have fallen to 39.2 in March, from 58.3 in February.

The US NAHB housing market index increased more than expected in March, to 38, from 37 in February, despite ongoing affordability pressures.
Despite the slight increase, the index remained below the neutral 50 threshold for a 23rd consecutive month.
Builders reported that high land, labour and construction costs, lingering supply shortages, and persistent economic uncertainty kept many potential buyers on the sidelines, despite the easing of mortgage rates.
However, rates had begun rising again in recent weeks amid geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.
Survey responses showed that 37% of builders reduced prices in March, while nearly two-thirds offered sales incentives, underscoring efforts to stimulate demand.

Brent crude oil is currently at $102.78/bbl; ($100.21/bbl*).
Gold is at $5036/oz ($5006/oz*).
SA CDS 169bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 277bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.21%*, German bund at 2.95%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.06%*, SA's R2035 at 8.93%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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