In the loop 01 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.89/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.00/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+1.5%), BRL (+1.4%) and ARS (+1.1%) were the biggest gainers; the MYR (-0.4%), THB (-0.3%) and COP (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: President Trump signalled yesterday that the US might end its war with Iran within two to three weeks.
He argued that most of Washington's objectives have already been achieved, and suggested that, while a deal with Tehran remains possible, it is not essential.
He is expected to address the US nation later today.

ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller commented yesterday the region's interest rate outlook has shifted materially towards tightening.
He warned that rate increases are now likely in the coming quarters if war-related energy price pressures persist.
Muller said the inflationary impact of sharply higher oil and gas prices stemming from the Iran conflict has already lasted long enough to make the ECB's baseline forecast look increasingly too optimistic.
He stressed that if energy costs remain elevated for an extended period, policymakers would need to respond to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored.
Muller added that “it's probable that in the coming quarters interest rates will rise”.

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid cautioned against assuming that the recent rise in energy prices will have only a temporary impact on inflation.
He warned that the Fed cannot afford to be complacent about risks to inflation expectations.
He noted that inflation was already running close to 3%, even before the Iran war triggered oil prices to surge.
Schmid added that progress towards the Fed's 2% target had stalled, and said that he takes limited comfort from the relative stability of medium- and long-term inflation expectations.
He emphasised that it is now the Fed's responsibility to follow through with policy actions that reinforce and validate those expectations.

The US S&P Cotality CS house price index increased by 0.9% y/y in January, from 1.1% y/y in December.
The FHFA house price index increased by 0.1% m/m in January, after having increased by an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m in December.
The Conference Board consumer confidence index for March overshot expectations; the index increased to 91.8, from 91.0 in February.
The improvement came on the back of more upbeat views of business and labour market conditions.
US JOLTS job openings fell from a multi-month high in February, to 6,882k, from 7,240k in January.
The data points to cooler labour demand, even before the Iran war triggered renewed uncertainty.
US retail sales data will be released today; sales are forecast to have increased by 0.5% m/m in February, following a 0.2% m/m fall in January.
Sales are likely to have been driven by a rebound in automotive sales.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI for March, also due today, is likely to have slipped to 52.3 in March, from 52.4 in February.

Locally, the Sixth South Africa Investment Conference, under the “Invest. Partner. Prosper.”, took place yesterday.
It focused on the strategic framework of Digitisation, Decarbonisation and Diversification.
President Cyril Ramaphosa positioned SA as a resilient and reform-driven investment destination despite heightened global volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions and energy shocks.
SA's Second Investment Drive was formally launched yesterday, targeting R2-trillion in new investment commitments over the next five years, and building on the R1.5-trillion in pledges secured since 2018.
More than R600bn has already been deployed into the SA economy.
Ramaphosa emphasised progress under Operation Vulindlela (OV); government highlighted tangible reform outcomes in electricity, logistics, telecommunications, water and the visa regime.
The conference focused on bankable opportunities in energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, mining beneficiation, technology and services.
It reinforced SA's ambition to convert reform momentum into real capital deployment, job creation, and sustained economic expansion.

The BER manufacturing PMI for March is due for release today; the index is likely to have increased to 48.0 in March, from 47.4 in February.
The March Naamsa vehicle sales will also be released today; vehicle sales increased by 11.4% y/y in February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $104.51/bbl; ($118.35/bbl*).
Gold is at $4690/oz ($4668/oz*).
SA CDS 199bps*, Brazil 142bps* and Turkey 306bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.31%*, German bund at 3.00%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.30%*, SA's R2035 at 9.15%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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