In the loop 22 April 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R16.44/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.49/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (-1.3%), HUF (-0.9%) and ZAR (-0.7%) were the biggest losers; the IDR (+0.2%), TWD (+0.1%) and ARS (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers.
Asian equity markets are mixed; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: Donald Trump has extended the US-Iran ceasefire amid a potential continuation of peace talks.
He noted that Pakistan's prime minister had asked him to hold fire until “leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal”.
The US military will continue its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran sees the blockage of its ports as an act of war that contravenes the ceasefire, and it considers the seizure of Iranian vessels as a violation of international law.
According to cargo-tracking data, at least 34 tankers with links to Iran have bypassed the US blockade.
There is uncertainty as to when negotiations will resume, with Iranian officials confirming that they would not attend talks in Pakistan today.

Central Bank watch: Bank Indonesia is set to keep its benchmark rate unchanged today, at 4.75%.
The Central Bank of Turkey is also expected to keep rates on hold today; the one-week repo rate is currently 37.0%.
There is, however, a risk of a technical hike to 40.0% and a reopening of the repo window to align the policy rate with the effective rate.

Japan's trade surplus rose less than expected in March.
The trade surplus increased to ¥667.0bn in March, up from a downwardly revised ¥44.3bn in February.
Exports increased 11.7% y/y in March, after rising 4.0% y/y in February; higher demand from China supported export growth.
Imports rose more than expected, by 10.9% y/y, in March (up from 10.3% y/y in February).

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faced a tense confirmation hearing before the Senate banking committee yesterday.
He rejected claims that Donald Trump had asked him to reduce rates in any of their discussions, adding that he would not “ever agree to do so”.
“'I've heard his view on interest rates and it sounded very similar to me to every other president in economic history”, he noted.
The committee has yet to set a date to vote on Warsh's nomination, with some members vowing to block it from advancing to the Senate until the White House drops its investigation into Jerome Powell.
Powell's second term as Fed chair comes to end on 15 May; he might temporarily remain at the helm of the Fed if Warsh is not yet confirmed in the Senate when his term expires.
Warsh, a previous Fed governor, confirmed that he would “hit the ground running” in carrying out far-reaching reforms at the Fed.
These reforms include shrinking the Fed's balance sheet and overhauling its communications with the public.

Locally, CPI data for March and retail trade sales for February will be in focus today.
The March data predates the significant fuel price hikes due to the war in Iran.
CPI is expected around 3.2% y/y in March, from 3.0% y/y in February.
On a m/m basis, CPI likely increased by 0.6%, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in February.
Core CPI is projected at 3.1% y/y in March, from 3.0% y/y in February.
The data will also include the quarterly survey of the weighty rental inflation category, which will likely reflect a relatively resilient housing market (prior to the outbreak of the Iran war).
February's retail sales volumes are expected to reflect growth of 4.3% y/y, up from a 4.2% y/y increase in January.
On a m/m basis, retail sales volumes likely rose 0.3% in February, after increasing 0.9% in January.

Brent crude oil is currently at $96.82/bbl; ($98.48/bbl*).
Gold is at $4765/oz ($4711/oz*).
SA CDS 149bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 233bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 3.00%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.59%*, SA's R2035 at 8.41%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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