In the loop 13 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.15/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.15/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ZAR (+0.3%), MXN (+0.2%) and HUF (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-0.6%), COP (-0.4%) and BRL (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: Iran has firmly rejected US President Trump's assertion that the US had "total control" of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran insisted that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the US accepted Iranian conditions, including compensation for war-related damages.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to near a three-month low amid continued uncertainty over whether the US and Iran would reach an agreement to fully reopen the Strait.
Vessel transits averaged around 13 ships per day in the five days through to Tuesday, close to the lowest level since 12 May.
This is roughly 90% below the pre-conflict average of 130 daily transits before the war broke out on 28 February.

The UK housing market remained subdued in July, although there were tentative signs of conditions stabilising.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) headline house price balance improved slightly, to -30%, from -32% in June, indicating that price declines remained widespread but still eased at the margin.
New buyer enquiries were unchanged, at -28%, while agreed sales held at -30%, pointing to persistently weak demand and transaction activity amid elevated mortgage costs and economic uncertainty.

The UK Treasury yesterday warned that the economy could barely grow next year if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, linked to the Iran war, persisted until the end of 2026.
The Treasury suggested that GDP growth could slow to as little as 0.3% in 2027 under this more extreme scenario.
This would be the weakest growth since 2023 when Britain was in the grip of its most recent cost-of-living crisis.
Officials however have stressed that such projections form part of routine contingency planning.
The warning comes against an already subdued growth backdrop, with the ONS expected to report a contraction in June.
The Iran conflict has further clouded the outlook by pushing energy prices higher since February and weighing on consumer confidence.

The UK GDP data for the Q2:26 is due for release today; the figures are likely to see the economy having expanded by 0.4% q/q in Q2:26, from 0.6% q/q in Q1:26.
Monthly GDP is likely to have decreased by 0.1% m/m in June, after having increased by 0.1% m/m in May.
The trade balance June is also due out today; the trade deficit is expected to have widened in June.
Eurozone industrial production, due out today, is expected to have decreased by 0.6% y/y in June, after having fallen by 1.2% y/y in May.

The US PPI for July is expected to come in at 4.9% y/y, from 5.5% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% in July, following a 0.3% decline in June.

Locally, mining production for June is scheduled for release; production is likely to have declined by 3.4% y/y, following a 5.4% y/y decline in May.
Mining production likely increased by 0.8% m/m in June, after having fallen by 5.2% m/m in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $88.82/bbl; ($88.98/bbl*).
Gold is at $4395/oz ($4408/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 124bps* and Turkey 224bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.69%*, German bund at 3.16%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.60%*, SA's R2035 at 8.39%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

08h00: UK GDP (Q2:26), monthly GDP (June), industrial production (June), manufacturing production (June), trade balance (June)
11h00: Eurozone industrial production (June)
11h30: SA mining production (June)
11h30: US initial jobless claims (8 August), PPI (July)

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